What does this week’s tracker show?
With around ten weeks left until referendum day, we’re increasingly hearing warnings of the economic risk and uncertainty involved in a potential Leave vote – including cautions from the International Monetary Fund about the “major challenges” a Brexit would cause for the UK and Europe.
The government has sought to capitalise on these messages, producing a pro-remain leaflet which outlines the potential consequences in terms of economic disruption. It eventually plans to send a copy of this leaflet to every household in the UK.
But thus far, these bleak warnings have yet to produce any real shift in public opinion. Most polls continue to suggest that it’s a very tight contest, with neither side able to gain a decisive lead.
However, we have noted in previous posts that the Leave camp stands to benefit on polling day from higher turnout among its supporters, and this week’s ICM poll is a clear illustration of this. While our topline numbers show 40% of the British public each in favour of Remain In and Leave, excluding those not registered to vote and adding turnout weighting puts the Leave camp ahead:
Remain In 42%
Excluding undecided voters, this translates as a four-point lead for Leave (52% vs 48%).