• Final General Election 2015 Poll

    In the full and final ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election, Labour edge into a 1-point lead compared to yesterday, with the parties holding its 35% share but the Tories dropping back 1-point.. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:

    Conservative 34%           (-1)
    Labour 35%                       (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9%    (nc)
    UKIP 11%                           (-2)
    Green 4%                           (-1)
    SNP 5%                               (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1%               (nc)
    Other 1%                            (nc)

    All the final polls are now in, and if any late swing has been present nearly all suggest Labour to have been the beneficiary (to this point).

    This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:

    Conservative 35%
    Labour 32%
    Liberal Democrats 14%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 2,023 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 3-6th May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Preliminary Prediction Poll

    In the preliminary ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election – which will be updated after further interviewing tonight, 6th May – the parties are deadlocked, with the Conservative small campaign lead wiped out, with both parties now standing on the same 35%. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:

    Conservative 35%         (nc)
    Labour 35%                  (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9%     (nc)
    UKIP 11%                     (-2)
    Green 3%                      (-2)
    SNP 5%                        (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1%            (nc)
    Other 1%                      (nc)

    The Conservative vote share has been solid for two weeks’, so far denying them any prospect of the much talked about incumbency effect. Any benefit they derive now will be swing, of the very latest kind. In fact it is Labour that moves up in our preliminary final poll, hitting their stride at exactly the right time. Both UKIP and the Greens drop a couple of points compared to last week, both within margins of error but still placing UKIP with a share four times their 2010 level.

    This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:

    Conservative 35%
    Labour 32%
    Liberal Democrats 14%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%

    In other news, personal approval ratings remains largely static, with the Prime Minister moving in a positive direction, up to +14 from +12 last week. Ed Miliband has seemingly had a good week, brushing off ‘Ed Stone’ comments to improve all the way from -29 to -20. This campaign has seen the opposition leader come into his own, and end up with pretty conventional ‘approval ratings’ – certainly on a parr with Nick Clegg (-18) and Nigel Farage (-16).

    The NHS is the issue that people have thought about most, with 79% saying they have stopped and pondered over it with regard to their vote intention, with the prospect of further cuts (57%) and squeezed living standard following up in the second rank (51%). The government deficit (48%) and tax rises (46%) then follow up, with the possibility of smaller parties holding the next government to ransom (39%) last on the list of possibilities presented to them. Much has been made of this b the Tory camp in the last week or two, but evidently it is less a concern to people than the tangible impacts that hit them in the pocket, or otherwise directly in their lives.

    Finally, the prospect of the next government splits people almost in a four-way tie. A Conservative majority would be well received by 25%, but this is only 2-points more than the 23% who want to see Labour governing on their own. A Conservative-led coalition (22%) also narrowly defeats the alternative of a Labour-led equivalent.

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1,560 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 3-6th May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. The poll will be updated on the morning of May 7th, with an additional c450 interviews added into the sample already achieved.

  • BBC Question Time Election Leaders’ Special Poll

    A flash poll conducted by ICM for The Guardian after the BBC Question Time Election Leaders’ Special shows that David Cameron was judged to have ‘won’ the contest. Among a sample of over 1,000 people who watched the show, 44% said the Conservative prime minister performed best on the night, ahead of the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, on 38% and Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, on 19%.

    When asked how they think each leader performed, Cameron – by a small margin – is adjudged to have been the most accomplished: 65% state that he did very or fairly well compared to 62% for Clegg and 61% for Miliband.

    ICM interviewed c.3,500 adults aged 18+ online on 28-29 April. All agreed to watch the BBC Question Time Election Leaders’ Special, and to complete a second interview immediately after it finished, which 1,288 did in the first few minutes. The data are weighted to the profile of all GB adults, including to recall of 2010 General Election voting. In essence, the post-wave data is ICM’s best guess on what a representative sample of the voting population would say had they all watched the programme.

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  • Guardian Campaign Poll 3 – April 2015

    With only ten days left before the election, the Tories fractionally increase their slim lead over Labour, up 1-point this week to 3-points. Their share is 35%, with Labour on 32%. The Liberal Democrats (9%) shed 1-point this week to leave them perilously close to their floor in the ICM\Guardian series, but UKIP continue to rise – now up to 13% – their highest with ICM since December last year.

    The vote intention figures for publication are:

    Con 35% (+1)
    Lab 32% (nc)
    LD 9% (-1)
    UKIP 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (nc)
    Other 6% (-2)

    Politicians approval ratings suggest little change from a fortnight ago, although the Prime Minister drops from +18 to +12. Ed Miliband has seen his scores improve of late, but this poll suggests stasis for the opposition leader, now on -29 compared to -30 earlier in the month. Nick Clegg may not have been seen much on the campaign trail, but his approval rating has also stabilised at -19 (considerably better the -42 we saw in October last year).

    In other questions, we found that, much like the shares of the vote, the public find it tricky to decide between the two main party’s central policy themes, with 40% saying the Tories are more extreme for their budget deficit cutting proposals, and 43% saying Labour are more extreme because of their higher borrowing potential.

    In terms of the political outcome of this election though, there is more certainty. Nearly half (47%) think that a coalition government is preferable to both a minority government (24%) and an early second election (22%).

    Much has been made of negative campaigning of late, particularly around the Tories focus on Ed Miliband, and the public do perceive that the Tories’ campaign has been slightly more negative than their opponents. Overall, 44% think the Tories have campaigned positively with 45% saying they have been negative, but Labour have 48% on their side suggesting that on balance they have campaigned positively (40% negative).

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a randonm sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 24-26th April 2015. Interviews were conducted across the countryand the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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  • Guardian Campaign Poll 2 – April 2015

    The second ICM/Guardian campaign poll very much sees a reversion to the mean after last week’s shock 6-point lead for the Conservatives. This week, they fall back to 34% (-5), still 2-points ahead of Labour (32%). The Liberal Democrats recover slightly to 10% (+2) and UKIP return to more routinely seen levels of late (11%). The full numbers are:

    Conservative 34%
    Labour 32%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 11%
    Green 5%
    Other 8%

    As if to prove the narrowness of this race, Labour actually hold a 1-point lead on the past vote weighted data, which is reversed with interest when ICM’s turnout weighting is imposed, pushing the Tories out to a 3-point lead, (reduced to 2-points after partial refuser adjustment). This election remains too close to call.

    In an interesting twist, we can view the extent to which each party can depend on its stated support. We asked intenders for each party whether they were certain they would vote that way, or whether they could change their mind. After turnout weighting, we can see the kind of voting patterns that have featured at previous elections emerging again. Conservative voters are most solid, with 73% saying they will vote for the party. Labour supporters say the same to the tune of 68%, a similar number to UKIP (65%). Labour’s possible wipe-out in Scotland is further supported by the fact that 95% of SNP voters are certain of their intention. The same cannot be said for the Liberal Democrats though, whose tumble into or near single figures may not stop where it is. Only 54% of its stated intenders say they are certain to vote for the party. The Greens may also fall away, with only 47% of their voters showing certainty.

    In general these levels of certainty are lower than they were before the 2010 election. Then, ICM returned to pre-election respondents to ask them how they actually voted, with 87% of Tories saying they did do what they said they were going to do, 86% of Labour intenders and 74% of Liberal Democrats. Voters from smaller parties fared much less well, with only 42% of Green intenders saying they did end up voting for the party, for example. Other smaller parties at the election suffered a similar fate, and we might expect more of the same this May.

    This week has seen the publication of party manifestos, and for the most part the public approve of them. Cutting income tax via the personal allowance is clearly a highly populist measure, with 89% backing the Tory proposal. Labour’s ideas on zero-hour contracts are also appealing, with 82% behind the measure. Seven in ten (71%) approve of the Tories inheritance tax proposals, while over half (55%) approve of UKIP’s cap on skilled and unskilled immigrants and an identical number approve of Labour’s abolition of non-dom status (55%). Allowing housing association tenants to buy their property at a subsidy gets the support of 56%.

    In the potential chaos of a fully hung parliament, if forced to choose the public would just about prefer a Conservative-LD coalition (41%) over a Labour-SNP alternative, although the public is completely split on who the Liberal Democrats should go in with if it were just down to their backing for either Labour (41%) or the Tories (41%).

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 17-19th April 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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  • Sunday Telegraph/ICM Wisdom Index, April 2015

    The latest Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index poll continues to show a neck and neck race, with additional question on trust in both main parties to run the economy, and in helping people with the cost of living.

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  • Guardian Campaign Poll 1 – April 2015

    In a departure from the mean, the latest ICM/Guardian poll sees the Conservatives (39%) stretch out to a 6-point lead over Labour (33%), only one point shy of the magic 40% mark at which majority governments can be formed. This represents a 3-point hike for the Tories, with Labour down 2-points. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 8%, with UKIP dropping a couple and the Greens restoring the 7% they last had in February.

    David Cameron also boosts his personal satisfaction ratings, with a full 52% saying he’s doing a good job and only 34% saying bad job. His + 18 is the best seen since his honeymoon period. Ed Miliband also does measurably better, but at -30 is still not seen in the same Prime Ministerial class as his opponent. Much the same goes for economic confidence, with Cameron & Osborne thought to be best able to manage the economy by 44%, compared to Miliband and Balls 17%. The gap (27-points) between the two pairs is a record for this Parliament.

    In the event of no party winning an outright majority, the most desired electoral outcome is another Con-Lib coalition, although a left wing alliance of Labour, the Greens and the SNP is preferred by 19%. Other questions included leader personal attributes and trust in each of the main parties to make sure everyone pays their fair share of tax.

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  • Sunday Telegraph/ICM Wisdom Index, March 2015 (2)

    The latest Wisdom Index, which reveals what the people think the election result will be rather than how they will vote in it, sees both the Conservatives and Labour on 32% although the Tories are slightly ahead when calculated to one decimal place (32.0% and 31.6% respectively). These scores are 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous Wisdom Index a week ago.

    The Lib Dems are predicted to take 14% share of the popular vote while predictions for UKIP continue to plummet, down a single point to 12% in the space of a week.

    ICM interviewed an online sample of 2,009 people aged 18+ on 27-29 March 2015. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • ITV Leaders’ Debate poll for The Guardian

    ICM / The Guardian interviewed 1,372 people who watched the live TV debate between the leaders of seven parties: David Cameron (Conservative), Ed Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Natalie Bennett (Greens) and Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru).

    Among all seven party leaders, Ed Miliband was judged to have ‘won’ the debate by a whisker from David Cameron:

    Ed Miliband – 25%
    David Cameron – 24%
    Nigel Farage – 19%
    Nicola Sturgeon – 17%
    Nick Clegg – 9%
    Natalie Bennett – 3%
    Leanne Wood – 2%

    However, on a forced choice between Miliband and Cameron, the vote split is split 50-50.

    ICM also asked a series of characteristics of David Cameron and Ed Miliband to those who watched the debate. Again, there is a split with Miliband leading on four attributes and Cameron winning on another four.

    Miliband is ahead in terms of:

    • Will govern in the interests of the many, not the few (+22)
    • Understands people like me (+17)
    • Is more spin than substance (-4)
    • Has changed the party for the better (+3)

    On the other hand, Cameron out performs Miliband on the following:

    • Will be more respected around the world (+32)
    • Is good in a crisis (+24)
    • Is decisive (+19)
    • Is backed by his party (+18)

    Both leaders are level pegging in terms of being perceived to have the courage to say what is right rather than what is popular.

    ICM interviewed 4,115 adults aged 18+ online on 30 March – 2 April. All agreed to watch the ITV Leaders’ Debate, and to complete a second interview immediately after it finished, which 1,372 did in the first few minutes. The data on both waves were weighted to the profile of all GB adults, including to recall of 2010 General Election voting. In essence, the post-wave data is ICM’s best guess on what a representative sample of the voting population would say had they all watched the programme.

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  • The Sunday Telegraph/ ICM Wisdom Index, March 2015

    The latest Wisdom Index, which reveals what the people think the election result will be rather than how they will vote in it, has produced a single point lead for the Conservatives on 32%, with Labour on 31%. Predictions for UKIP are plummeting, down three-points since Christmas to 13% and now trailing the Liberal Democrats on 14%.

    ICM interviewed an online sample of 2,002 people aged 18+ on 18-20 March 2015. Interviews were conducted across Britain and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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