• The Guardian October Poll

    At a lead of 17-points, this is the joint second highest EVER recorded in the dating back to 1992, only beaten by a Gordon Brown crisis of June 2008. The Tories 43% is two-points adrift of its highest share ever recorded by ICM (three times after the 1992 election, Jun-08 and Nov-08 plus 44% on three occasions straddling 08-09). We did have them on 43% back in July this year.

    As for Labour, their 26% has only been ‘beaten’ by 25% in Jun 08 and Aug 09, and the last Guardian/ICM at this level was Sep 09 (the only other time). However, ICM did also put them on 26% three weeks’ ago for a Sunday newspaper.

    In fact though, Labour’s share has only been saved from a record low by ICM’s standard post-fieldwork adjustment techniques, which ordinarily help the Tories. The reason for this is that this week, there are a high number of people who say they voted Labour in 2015 but DK/refuse to say what they will do next time, and our reallocation of them back to the party for they voted for ends up adding two-points back to Labour.

    Labour’s struggles are especially prevalent among women (Tory split 39% vs 52% in favour of women).

    We also see further decline in the UKIP share, possibly prompted by recent fisticuffs and the return of Nigel Farage. At 11% they dip below their 2015 election share for the first time with ICM and it’s the lowest we’ve ever had them on an online poll (although phone polls pre-2015 had them lower very often).

  • The Guardian – September Poll 1

    In the latest Guardian/ICM poll – which has permanently switched to online data collection allied to twice-monthly outputs – the Conservatives (41%) retain a sizeable gap (13-points) over Labour (28%), even though Labour claw back 1-point compared to our last poll in late August.

    The Conservatives dominate English seats in Parliament, and currently sit on a 16-point lead over Labour in England. With Scotland very much in the tight grip of the SNP and the Right making advances in Wales  it is hard to see where Labour could look for comfort right now, or that much will change until the leadership contest is over.


  • Voting intention poll 26-28 August

    Nothing really to see here, if you’re only interested in statistically significant movements in polling data.

    If you prefer a more melodramatic interpretation, well, Labour have bounced back down to their most recent floor of 27%, last seen exactly a month ago in the ICM/Guardian series but before that not since the slow torture of Gordon Brown’s last months in office (October 2009).

    It’s the third straight Guardian/ICM with Labour snugly below the politically symbolic 30% threshold, although its Selectorate do not appear to mind that much, given a poll reported today that suggests Jeremy Corbyn will cruise his re-selection.

    The Conservatives for their part, also hit a politically symbolic mark for the third straight occasion. More happily for the new PM, the share is above the success marker of 40%, their current showing of 41% estimated by Electoral Calculus to yield a majority in the House of Commons of 102 seats (excluding Northern Ireland). This is the fifth 40%+ share for the Tories from ICM since the 2015 General Election, compared to only one such rarely-spotted phenomenon (Jan 12) in the previous electoral cycle. This remains solidly honeymoon territory.

    ICM Unlimited interviewed 2,040 adults online on 26-28th August 2016. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Guardian/ICM voting intention poll

    ICM interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,001 GB adults aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted online on 24-26 June 2016.