BBC Wales – St. David’s Day Poll 2019

Posted by Gregor Jackson on the 1st March, 2019

ICM Unlimited were commissioned by BBC Wales to carry out the annual St. David’s Day poll among the general public in Wales.

This poll has been covered on the BBC News website: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47394303

Below is a summary of some of the key findings of the Westminster and Welsh Assembly voting intentions questions and of the tracker questions on the future of devolution and the perceived impact of Brexit.

 

Key Findings

  • The Westminster voting intentions show that, while Labour continues to be the largest party in terms of overall vote share, the proportion who say they would vote Labour at a General Election has fallen from 49% in February 2018 to 42% this year (-7 percentage points). We see small gains for the Conservatives (33%, up 1 from 2018), Plaid Cymru (13%, +2), the Liberal Democrats (6%, +1), and UKIP (3%, +1).
  • We see the same pattern with regard to voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly ballots. For the Constituency Ballot, Labour vote share declines from 40% last year to 34% this year (-6). While all other parties benefit at Labour’s expense, the largest improvement is seen for Plaid Cymru, rising from 24% in 2018 to 27% this year (+3). The Conservatives (23%), the Liberal Democrats (7%), and the Green Party (2%) all see modest gains from this time last year (all rise by 1 percentage point).
  • In the Regional Ballot Labour’s vote share falls from 36% to 32% (-4) compared to last year, with Plaid Cymru again seeing the largest uplift (25%, +3) among the other parties.
  • We see little change in opinions when it comes to the role of the Welsh Assembly. The most common response continues to be that the ‘Welsh Assembly should have more powers than it currently has’ (46%). If anything support for this option appears to be trending upwards, with 46% representing a two-percentage-point increase compared to February 2018 and being greater than at any time since September 2014. Support for independence remains at 7% (no change since 2018), while support for abolishing the Welsh Assembly hovers around 13% (+1).

 

2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-18 Feb-19
Independence 11% 11% 7% 9% 5% 3% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Assembly plus more powers 40% 35% 36% 36% 37% 49% 40% 43% 44% 44% 46%
Assembly remain as present 13% 18% 29% 28% 28% 26% 33% 30% 29% 28% 27%
Assembly with fewer powers 18% 17% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Abolish Assembly 13% 15% 22% 20% 23% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 13%
DK 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2%

 

  • We see a marked increase in pessimism on the impact of Brexit compared to February 2018. Well over half now think that Brexit will have a negative impact on the Welsh economy (56% vs. 49% in 2018). Similarly, the proportion who think that Brexit will have a negative impact on their own personal finances has grown from 36% in 2018 to 39% now. Finally, more than half now think that Brexit will have a negative effect on the way of life in Wales at the moment (51%, +5).
To the Welsh Economy To your own personal finances On the way of life in Wales today in general
Feb-18 Feb-19 Change Feb-18 Feb-19 Change Feb-18 Feb-19 Change
Positive impact 24% 20% -4 14% 10% -4 23% 19% -4
Negative impact 49% 56% +7 36% 39% +3 46% 51% +5
Will make no difference 17% 16% -1 41% 42% +1 22% 23% +1
DK 10% 8% -2 9% 9% 0 9% 7% -2

 

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 7-23 February 2019. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults in Wales. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Click here for methodology details

Please click the button below to download the report, we do have an archive of previous polls here.
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