Theresa May’s deal may be very few people’s first choice – but it could yet emerge as the public’s preferred option.

Last week Theresa May presented the choice facing MPs and the country as being between three options: her deal, no deal, and no Brexit.

A brand new poll from ICM has tested the public’s view on this choice – and has shown that, when offered all three options, Theresa May’s deal comes in last place with 22% of the public preference. While there’s no clear majority in favour of any single option, a comparatively greater proportion would prefer no deal (29%) or no Brexit (36%).

But take the option of ‘no Brexit’ off the table, and those that previously preferred this option now break dramatically in favour of Theresa May’s deal. So much so that May’s deal could become the UK public’s preferred option if it’s seen as the only alternative to a no deal Brexit.

This has important implications for any future parliamentary vote and especially if there were to be a second referendum. While it may seem at the moment like there are very few fans of the withdrawal agreement as it currently stands, things may change if the available options are seen to narrow. It may well end up as the public’s least favourite option, but at the same time the only option a majority can agree on as the least bad on offer. Maybe, just maybe, this will eventually be seen as a successful compromise after all?

But the furore may have already taken its toll on the Prime Minister before she gets the chance to force a choice in favour of her deal – almost half (49%) of the British public expect her to be replaced as Tory leader by 29^th March, when the UK is currently due to leave the EU.

Key findings:

• Almost half (49%) of Brits think Theresa May will be replaced as Conservative leader before the end of March. Excluding those who day they don’t know, this rises to a clear majority of those expressing a view thinking Theresa May will be replaced by the end of March (61%)
• Only 1 in 4 (24%) think there will be a second referendum (or ‘People’s Vote’) announced in this time, with 1 in 3 thinking (34%) thinking a general election will be announced.
• When given a choice between Theresa May’s deal, no deal or no Brexit, Theresa May’s deal is the least favoured of the three options – Only 22% of Brits pick it as their preferred choice compared to 36% for no Brexit and 29% for no deal. 13% say they don’t know.
• However if we take the option of no Brexit off the table and ask its supporters which of the two remaining options they prefer, more than twice as many choose Theresa May’s deal (48%) over no deal (21%). 31% say they don’t know.
  • This tips the balance such that, in a hypothetical direct choice between Theresa May’s deal and no deal, it’s possible that May’s deal could just edge ahead. Excluding those who said they don’t know, 51% would prefer May’s deal to 49% who would prefer no deal.
  • But crucially it’s those who voted for the UK to Remain in 2016 which swing this choice in favour of May. Only 3 in 10 Leavers (30%) say they would choose May’s deal over no deal, with a majority of leavers (57%) preferring no deal.

This poll was featured in the Sun on Sunday – read the article here

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,011 adults aged 18+, between 16th – 18th November 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Download tables here

Labour Leave Poll for Represent Us

The findings have been written up by Represent Us here.

These tables present the findings from research into the voting intentions of 1,535 residents in 54 constituencies which Labour won in the 2017 General Election and which voted Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum. The sample was split into two sub-samples: 27 constituencies where the Leave vote share was 50-59.9% (n=785) and 27 constituencies where the Leave vote share was 60+% (n=750). The research covered voting intentions under different hypothetical scenarios imagining that the parliamentary vote on the final Brexit deal had been held.

Note: fieldwork took place between 2 – 13 November (i.e. prior to the deal being made public)

The findings reveal that the best scenario electorally for Labour is when the idea of a People’s Vote is introduced. By far the best outcome is produced by Labour (including the local MP) voting with the Government in favour of the final Brexit deal, on the condition that there is a People’s Vote and that the deal is approved in this vote. This scenario sees an eight-point lead for Labour over the Conservatives (48% vs. 40%). This pattern holds for both sub-samples.

The preference for a People’s Vote is also suggested by the results for the final question. As we can see, when offered with the two options of (i) a People’s Vote and (ii) leaving the EU without a deal (a ‘no deal’ Brexit), there is a clear preference for a People’s Vote across all samples.

Q. If the UK Government fails to negotiate a final Brexit deal with the EU, or the UK Parliament rejects the deal, setting the UK on a course to a ‘no deal’ Brexit, which of the following two options would you prefer to happen?

Summary of ICM Voting Intentions figures at each question for each sample: ICM VI figures – Q3, 5-9

Tables for the overall sample of 54 Labour Leave constituencies, n=1535: Represent-Us-Labour-Leave-Poll-BPC – 19.11.18

Tables for the sub-sample of the 27 constituencies with a Leave vote share of 50-59.9%: Represent-Us-Labour-Leave-Poll-50-59.9-BPC – 19.11.18

Tables for the sub-sample of the 27 constituencies with a Leave vote share of 60+%: Represent-Us-Labour-Leave-Poll-60-plus-BPC – 19.11.18

ICM interviewed a sample of 1,535 adults aged 18+ in the relevant constituencies online between 2 and 13 November 2018. Demographic quotas were set to ensure a representative sample. At the analysis stage, data has been weighted to the profile of each of the target populations: the 50-59.9% Leave constituencies (n=785), the 60+% Leave constituencies (n=750), and the overall sample (n=1,535). ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

In our latest voting intentions poll, carried out just before the Autumn Budget, there was once again very little movement. The Conservatives remain narrowly ahead of Labour, with the Lib Dems remaining at 9%. Having said that, 38% for Labour does mark their lowest result in our polling since the 2017 General Election, perhaps reflecting the party’s reduced media presence over the last few weeks.

With a budget that apparently went down well with the public, the Conservatives will be hoping that their lead will have grown by the time of our next Voting Intentions poll in November.

Conservative: 40% (-1)
Labour: 38% (-2)
Lib Dem: 9% (nc)
SNP: 3% (nc)
PC: 1% (+1)
Green: 3% (nc)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
Other: *% (nc)

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,048 adults aged 18+ between 26-28 October 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have bee weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Download tables in PDF

New research from ICM Unlimited on behalf of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) highlights levels of awareness and understanding of competition law among UK businesses. The findings are based on a representative telephone sample of 1,200 UK businesses where respondents are senior individuals with responsibility for sales in their business.

Key findings:

• A majority of businesses are aware of key anti-competitive behaviours, e.g. that price fixing with other companies can lead to imprisonment (60%) and that it can be illegal to attend a meeting where competitors agree prices (59%).
• However, many companies do not know enough about how to comply with competition law. Just under six in ten (57%) businesses recognise that it’s illegal ‘for competitors to agree prices in order to avoid losing money’; the remaining 43% is split equally between those who say it’s okay or do not know.
• Moreover, there is uncertainty around issues such as reselling and the consequences of reporting cartel activity. For instance, a third (34%) are aware that it is unlawful to set the price at which others resell their product(s), whilst only 18% are aware that they can gain immunity from admitting to participation in a cartel.
• A large majority (95%) rate compliance with competition law as important yet over half (57%) believe the risk of breaching it is low within their sector.
• Nine in ten (88%) claim they would take action if illegal activity was taking place within their own business, while three quarters (77%) claim they would do so if it were taking place within a competing business.

Additional findings are set out in the infographic below designed by ICM for the CMA.

For the full executive summary and report, please click here.

For further information from the Competitions and Markets Authority on this survey, please follow this link: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-sends-tough-message-to-business-cheats-with-cartel-campaign

For high-quality PDF click here

ICM Unlimited has been shortlisted in the Public Policy / Social Research category for its work with the MS Society using innovative participatory research methods.

Our colleagues in Walnut Unlimited – of which ICM is the specialist social research arm – have been nominated for two awards: Young Researcher of the Year and Breakthrough Business of the Year.

Winners will be announced on Monday 3rd December.

Right in the middle of conference season, we wanted to check on how the public perceived the two main parties, and leaders across a range of policy areas.

We last asked the ‘which party would do the best job’ question back in February. The latest results, compared to then, are shown below

While there have not been large shifts in the perceptions of the parties, we can see that compared to February, Labour have a reduced lead over the Conservatives in pretty much all key policy areas. The only exception is on negotiating a good Brexit deal for the UK, were Labour now lag behind the Conservatives by 10 percentage points, rather than 13.

In the midst of Labour conference – with this poll carried out over the conference weekend – this will not be especially welcome reading for Labour delegates. With what appeared to be very public humiliations for the government’s Brexit plans last week and associated no-deal warnings in many diverse areas of government, it would have been reasonable to hope for a stronger Labour performance on these metrics.

And when looking at the leaders, things don’t get much better for those on the left of British politics. When asked which leader they trust most to do a good job in the same areas we see a similar picture. While there are no large changes when comparing to when we last asked this question, on all areas we ask, Corbyn’s net lead over May has got worse. So where Corbyn had a lead over May this has been reduced, and where Corbyn lagged behind May, this gap has got bigger.

Looking at the data in this way also allows us to understand how each leader is performing relative to the perceptions of their party.

Theresa May does very slightly outperform her party in three areas but is outperformed by her party on four areas. However, things are even worse for Corbyn who fails to outperform his party on even one of the policy areas we ask. This make for concerning reading for those in Southside: while Theresa May might be failing to energise the Conservative brand, it appears that if anything Corbyn is dragging down perceptions of Labour in the eyes of the public, rather than boosting them higher through his leadership.

And on to voting intentions, there is yet again little change. The two main parties trade a percentage point between each other, to leave us with a one point Tory lead. And if there has been a conference boost for the Lib Dems, it has been small. They go up one percentage point to 9%; while a modest gain, we haven’t seen them any higher in our polling since the General Election.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,006 adults aged 18+, between 21st – 24th September 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

People’s Vote Marginals Poll for Represent Us

These tables present the findings from research into the voting intentions of 1,701 respondents in 107 marginal constituencies across England, Wales, and Scotland under different hypothetical scenarios following a UK Parliament vote against the final Brexit deal negotiated by the UK government, conducted by ICM Unlimited on behalf of Represent Us.

The findings reveal that, in the scenario of a general election following Parliament voting against the government’s final Brexit deal, the Labour Party would be electorally better off promising to support a popular vote on their re-negotiated Brexit deal as opposed to ruling one out. This pattern is especially pronounced in the 48 ‘Heavily leave’ constituencies.

• First Voting Intentions Question, Q5: If Parliament votes against the final Brexit deal … there may be a general election. Opposition parties will probably promise to negotiate a better deal. Which party would you vote for in a general election in these circumstances?
• Second Voting Intentions Question, Q6: Which party would you vote for in that general election if… in their general election manifestos, Labour, the Lib Dems, and the SNP promise that the people will get to vote on any Brexit deal, but the Conservatives rule this out?
• Third Voting Intentions Question, Q7: Which party would you vote for in that general election if… in their general election manifestos, only the Lib Dems and the SNP promise that the people will get to vote on any Brexit deal, while Labour and the Conservatives rule this out?

Summary of ICM Voting Intentions figures at each question for each sample: ICM VI figures at Q5, Q6, Q7

England & Wales tables, 84 constituencies, n=1201: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Eng&Wales (18-09-18)

‘Remain / evenly balanced’ tables, 34 constituencies, n=500: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Remain & balanced (18-09-18)

‘Heavily leave’ tables, 48 constituencies, n=701: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Leave (18-09-18)

Scotland tables, 25 constituencies, n=500: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Scotland (18-09-18)

ICM interviewed a sample of 1,701 adults aged 18+ in the relevant constituencies online between 4 and 12 September 2018. Demographic quotas were set to ensure a representative sample. At the analysis stage, data has been weighted to the profile of each of the target populations: the 82 England and Wales constituencies (n=1,201), the 34 ‘Remain / evenly-balanced’ constituencies (n=500) and the 48 ‘Heavily leave’ constituencies (n=701) that comprise the England & Wales sample, and the 25 Scotland constituencies (n=500).

British Future and Hope Not Hate have published the results to their ‘National Conversation’ on immigration and integration. As part of this, ICM interviewed a nationally representative sample of UK adults to explore the public’s views toward this key issue.

The findings below are consistent with the results in the appendices of British Future’s ‘National Conversation’ report. They differ from those in the main body of the ‘National Conversation’ report because British Future have included migrant data.

• ICM’s data tables: NationalConversation_BritishFuture_TABLES
• ICM’s topline summary: NationalConversation_BritishFuture_TOPLINE

ICM interviewed a sample of 3,267 UK adults aged 18+ online, between 13 and 18 June 2018. The samples in Scotland and Northern Ireland were boosted to ensure a robust sample in each nation. In addition, the total sample contains booster interviews with BAME respondents.

To ensure a representative sample, demographic quotas were set and, at the analysis stage, data has been weighted to the profile of all UK adults aged 18+. Booster interviews have been weighted back into the overall population profile.

The booster samples among EU and non-EU migrants are shown as independent samples in the data tables.

Some commentators have decried the war over words in both main parties that that burst into full-sight over the weekend. But while competing Brexit, leadership and party priorities simmered to the surface, ICM were busy polling whether the British public had substantively changed their position on Brexit.

If there was another EU referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?

We asked this question in both January and April this year – both times finding the slimmest of leads for Remain over Leave. Yet at the third time of asking, we have seen a slightly bigger shift, with Remain creeping up one percentage point to 46% and Leave slipping down two percentage points to 42% from April.

Let’s not get over-excited about these figures – these are still small shifts in numbers, and the result is still considered well within the margin of error. Nevertheless, this is the largest lead for Remain we’ve seen across the three times we’ve asked the question this year. And, when excluding those who prefer not to say, don’t know and wouldn’t vote, the results of this question do catch the eye. If an exact repeat of the 2016 Referendum were to be held tomorrow, this poll predicts an exact reversal of 2016’s result – with the country split 52% to 48%, but this time in favour of Remain.

We also re-asked a question that was also featured in our Brexit mega-poll in January, and last asked back in May. Asking on the likely impact of Brexit on personal finances, the economy and way of life in general, we see a similarly grim appraisal overall from the British public as observed in May and January.

Brexiteers may take solace from the fact that there are no huge negative shifts at the overall level. But scratch the surface, and there looks like there might be something interesting happening among those who voted Leave in 2016. Leavers are still more positive than negative about the aspects of Brexit we ask about, but the gap between those who are positive and negative about the impact of Brexit on the way of life in Britain today in general has narrowed by 8 percentage points since the start of the year. Even more strikingly, the equivalent gap has narrowed by 10 percentage points when it comes to the impact on the economy.

So while the country remains strongly polarised along the same lines as the 2016 Referendum, there are small signs that Leavers’ initial optimism maybe, just maybe, might be fading at the margins.

And what for the impact on our headline voting intention figures?

It’s a story of slight but not significant changes. With the Tories up two points to 42% and Labour down one point to 39%, what was a dead heat in our last poll three weeks ago turns into a three percentage point lead for Theresa May’s Conservatives. Percentage point changes on our previous poll are in the table below in brackets.

We still haven’t seen the two main parties break out of a three percentage point bind of each other in a Guardian/ICM poll since the 2017 election. The wait continues.

On 23rd June 2016, a referendum was held on if the UK should remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.

If there was another EU referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?

• For the UK to Remain in the EU (Jan: 45%; Apr: 45%; Sep 46%)
• For the UK to Leave the EU (Jan: 43%; Apr: 44%; Sep 42%)
• I wouldn’t vote (Jan: 6%; Apr: 5%; Sep 6%)
• Prefer not to say (Jan: 1%; Apr: 1%; Sep 1%)
• Don’t know (Jan: 5%; Apr: 5%; Sep 5%)

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,051 adults aged 18+, between 7th – 9th September 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Today – Thursday 23^rd August – sees the Government publish its advice to businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit. In the lead-up, ICM’s retail research colleagues in Walnut Unlimited (of which ICM is part) have worked with Retail Week to understand consumer attitudes towards food prices increasing and likelihood to consider stockpiling in the run-up to Brexit.

The results show that with uncertainty in the likelihood of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, consumers are concerned about the prospect of rising retail prices. A summary of the findings can be accessed by clicking on the pdf below.