The poll covered a wide variety of topics, including Welsh Assembly voting intentions and people’s attitudes towards: Assembly powers, the impact of migrants, their local town centre, and the economy.
BBC Wales covered the poll in two articles:
For this year’s poll, ICM made some minor methodological tweaks to the way that the voting intention figures were calculated. Full details of these changes can be found in the accompanying methodological note that can be downloaded at the bottom of the page. Moreover, the sample is very slightly different this year compared to last year in the sense that the 2020 poll includes people aged 16 or 17. This change was made to reflect the fact that 16-17-year-olds will now be eligible to vote in the 2021 Welsh Assembly elections. These changes should be borne in mind when comparing this year’s results to the results from previous years.
Below is a summary of some of the key findings:
- The Welsh Assembly voting intentions show that the level of support for the Conservatives has surged since the 2019 St. David’s Day Poll. For the Constituency Ballot, the Conservatives’ vote share has increased from 23% last year to 31% this year (+8). Combined with Labour dropping three points since last year from 34% to 31%, this means that the two parties are now neck-and-neck. Elsewhere, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats remain fairly consistent on 26% (-1) and 6% (-1) of the vote, respectively.
- We see the same pattern with regard to the Regional Ballot, with the Conservative Party climbing by seven points from 22% to 29% and Labour faltering on 31% (-1). Plaid Cymru remain on 25% (n/c), while the Liberal Democrats are on 5% (-1).
- Support for Welsh independence hits a nine-year high, with 11% now saying that they think “Wales should become independent, separate from the UK”, up four points compared to 2019. Not since 2011 have we seen support for independence as high as 11% in this series of ICM-BBC Wales St. David’s Day Polls. Despite the bounce in support for independence, the most common response continues to be that the “Welsh Assembly should have more powers than it currently has” (43%, -3). Support for abolishing the Welsh Assembly hovers around 14% (+1).
|Assembly plus more powers||43%||46%||44%||44%||43%||40%||49%||37%||36%||36%||35%||40%|
|Assembly remain as present||25%||27%||28%||29%||30%||33%||26%||28%||28%||29%||18%||13%|
|Assembly with fewer powers||2%||3%||4%||3%||3%||4%||2%||3%||2%||2%||17%||18%|
- Over half of adults in Wales think that the Welsh Government in Cardiff should have the powers to control justice, policing, and prisons in Wales (55%), while four in ten think that such powers should sit with the UK Government in Westminster (39%).
- We see a slight uptick in the proportion of people in Wales who think that migrants have a positive impact. 63% agree that “Migrants from other countries have a positive impact on Britain’s economy”, up three percentage points compared to 2019, while 58% agree that “Britain’s cultural life is generally enriched by migrants coming to live here from other countries” (+2).
- The majority of Welsh residents think that their nearest town centre or city centre has declined over the last decade, with more than half saying that it has “become a worse place to shop, work and visit” over this period (54%) and less than one in five saying that it has become a better place (17%). A quarter think that it has stayed about the same (25%).
Methodology note: ICM Poll for BBC Wales Methodology Note 2020
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 16+ by telephone between 4-22 February 2020. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of 16+ population in Wales. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.