The poll covered a range of topics, including Welsh Assembly voting intentions, attitudes to constitutional affairs, opinions about the impact of the pandemic and views on which sectors should be prioritised for investment.
You can read BBC Wales’ article covering the results in the following articles:
Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales
Handling of Covid pandemic quizzed in poll for BBC Wales
Here is a summary of the key findings:
Labour looks to have a healthy lead in the Constituency Ballot of the Welsh parliament elections. Four in five (39%) voters say they will vote for Labour in May, an increase of eight percentage points since last year and the party’s highest poll rating since February 2018 (40%). In contrast, the Conservatives’ vote share has decreased since 2020 by seven points, from 31% to 24%. This puts the Tories on level footing with Plaid Cymru whose poll rating has slipped two percentage points since this time last year.
The Regional Ballot shows a similar trend as Labour leads with the Tories and Plaid Cymru in joint second place. Labour’s share of the vote (37%) has increased by six percentage points since this time last year. In contrast, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have seen their support for the regional ballot erode by seven and three percentage points respectively in the last twelve months (down to 22% for both).
Support for Welsh independence is at its highest level in a decade. One in seven (14%) of the public feel that “Wales should become independent, separate from the UK”, a figure which is three percentage points higher than in 2020 and seven points higher than two years ago.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Mar-14 | Sep-14 | Mar-15 | Mar-16 | Mar-17 | Feb-18 | Feb-19 | Feb-20 | Feb-21 | |
| Independence | 11% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 14% |
| Assembly/Parliament plus more powers | 35% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 49% | 40% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 43% | 35% |
| Assembly/Parliament remain as present | 18% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 33% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 27% |
| Assembly/Parliament with fewer powers | 17% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Abolish Assembly/Parliament | 15% | 22% | 20% | 23% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
| DK | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
However, there has been an 8-point decline in the proportion of those who think the “Welsh Parliament should have more powers than it currently has” (35%), the lowest score since 2011. Conversely, there has been a consolidation in support for those who want the powers to remain unchanged or to be weaker, and who favour its abolition or do not know.
A majority of Welsh citizens feel that their income has been unaffected by the pandemic (55% say there has been neither a positive nor negative impact). Nonetheless, nearly three times as many people feel that the pandemic has negatively affected their personal finances compared to those who say the pandemic has positively affected them (32% vs 12%).
Most Welsh citizens feel that The National Health Service is most important to prioritise once the emergency phase is over, with 39% choosing this as their top choice. Behind the NHS, the economy/jobs and education/schools are seen as priority areas for investment (32% and 16% respectively).
Data tables: ICM Poll for BBC Wales – St. David’s Day 2021 – Tables (23-02-21)
Methodology note: ICM Poll for BBC Wales – St. David’s Day 2021 – Methodology Note (23-02-21)
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults aged 16+ by telephone between 28 January and 21 February 2021. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of 16+ population in Wales. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
