ICM’s fourth published voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows a narrower Conservative lead than last week. In this week’s poll, the Conservative lead over Labour stands at seven points, compared to a 10-point lead last week.
Headline voting intention figures:
Con: 41% (-1)
Lab: 34% (+2)
Lib Dem: 13% (-)
Brexit Party: 4% (-1)
Green: 3% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)
Plaid: 1% (+1)
UKIP: 0% (-)
Another party: 1% (-1)
This week’s poll is the first published ICM voting intention poll of the campaign to show respondents only those parties that are standing in their constituencies. We did this for the following parties that are not contesting all seats:
- Liberal Democrats
- The Brexit Party
- Green Party
- UK Independence Party (UKIP)
- Plaid Cymru
In last week’s poll, we did not show the Brexit Party answer option to respondents living in the 317 constituencies that the Conservatives won in 2017.
The poll was published exclusively by Reuters: Johnson’s Conservatives see lead over Labour narrow to 7 points – ICM poll
The poll was also covered / referenced widely in the media:
‘The real story is that the polls aren’t changing at all‘ New Statesman
‘General election latest polls: Boris Johnson’s lead is narrowing in boost for Labour‘, The i
‘Tory lead in election polls drops for second day in a row‘, Metro
‘The election opinion polls are tightening – Corbyn might just become prime minister‘, The Independent
‘Labour cuts Tory poll lead as sudden surge sees gap narrow two weeks before election‘, The Independent
The poll also featured in various prominent daily email briefings:
Politico’s London Playbook (26 November 2019)
The New Statesman’s Evening Call (25 November 2019)
HuffPost’s WaughZone (25 November 2019)
Summary
The Conservatives drop one point to 41%, while Labour climb by two points compared to last week, taking them to 34%.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats remain on 13%, while the Brexit Party fall a point to 4%. In constituencies in which the Brexit Party is standing, the party is polling at 9%.
A second Scottish independence referendum
With a second Scottish independence referendum becoming a key point of debate in the election, ICM this week asked the public if they would allow a second Scottish independence referendum within the next 5 years if they were prime minister.
The British public is evenly split on this question, with 40% saying that they would allow a second Scottish referendum in the next 5 years if they were PM and 42% saying that they would not allow it. Around one in five people do not know (18%).
Younger people are more likely than older people to say that they would allow a second Scottish independence referendum. Around half of 18-24-year-olds (52%) and 25-34-year-olds (47%) say that they would allow indyref2 within 5 years, compared to three in ten of those aged 65 or over (31%).
Among those living in England & Wales, the results are similar to the overall results: four in ten would allow a second independence referendum in Scotland within 5 years (40%) and four in ten would not (41%).
Among those who intend to vote Labour, over half say that they would allow a second independence referendum (56%), while three in ten would prevent one (28%). Among those who intend to vote Conservative, the pattern is flipped: six in ten would block a second independence referendum (63%), while three in ten would allow one (27%).
When looking at the results by EU referendum vote, we see that half of Remainers would allow indyref2 within 5 years (49%) compared to three in ten Leavers (31%).
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intention – Data tables – 22-25 Nov 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,004 GB adults (18+) online between 22 and 25 November 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
