ICM’s penultimate published voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows the Conservatives maintaining their seven-point lead over Labour since last week’s poll.
Headline voting intention figures:
Con: 42% (+1)
Lab: 35% (+1)
Lib Dem: 13% (-)
Brexit Party: 3% (-1)
Green: 2% (-1)
SNP: 3% (-)
Plaid: 0% (-1)
UKIP: 0% (-)
Another party / ind. candidate: 1% (-)
The poll was published exclusively by Reuters: PM Johnson’s Conservatives maintain 7-point lead over Labour – ICM poll
In the aftermath of the London Bridge attack, the poll ratings of both the Conservatives and Labour show little change compared to last week. The Conservatives are on 42% (+1), while Labour are on 35% (+1).
The Liberal Democrats stay on 13%, while the Brexit Party drop a point to 3%. In constituencies in which the Brexit Party is standing, the party is polling at 7% – down two points compared to last week.
The squeeze of the smaller parties continues. In the first poll of the campaign, conducted between 1-4 November, the Conservatives and Labour held 69% of the vote between them. Now, the vote share of the two main parties stands at 77%.
What do the public think will happen?
With people’s perceptions of the likely election outcome perhaps playing a part in who they end up voting for, ICM this week sought to understand what the public think will happen come December 12.
Three in ten people think that the most likely outcome of the election is that the Conservatives will win ‘with a majority of less than 50 seats’ (29%), making it the single most commonly predicted outcome. One in five people think that the Tories will win ‘with a majority of more than 50’ (19%), meaning that, overall, just under half of the public think that a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome (48%).
Just under a quarter of people think that a hung parliament is the most likely thing to happen come December 12 (23%), while one in ten think that a Labour majority is the most likely eventuality, with 6% predicting a Labour majority of less than 50 seats and 4% predicting a Labour majority of more than 50 seats. One in five people do not know what outcome they think is most likely (19%).
Among those who intend to vote Conservative, confidence seems to be high. Combining the four in ten who think that the Conservatives will win with a handsome majority of over 50 (39%) and the four in ten who think they will win with a more modest majority (43%), over eight in ten of those who intend to vote Conservative think that their party of choice will win a majority (82%).
Among those who intend to vote Labour, three in ten think that a hung parliament is most likely to happen (29%), a similar proportion as predict a Labour majority (31%).
Those who voted Remain in 2016 are twice as likely as those who voted Leave to think that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. A third of Remainers think a hung parliament is most likely (32%), compared to fewer than one in six Leavers (15%).
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intentions – Data tables – 29 Nov-02 Dec 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,029 GB adults (18+) online between 29 November and 02 December 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.