With polling day fast approaching, ICM’s last voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows a similar picture to last week’s poll. The Conservatives remain on 42% (-) and Labour are on 36% (+1), meaning there is a six-point gap between the parties as we enter the final week of the campaign.
The Liberal Democrats continue to struggle at 12% (-1), while the Brexit Party stay on 3% nationally. In constituencies in which the Brexit Party is standing, the party is polling at 7% – no change compared to last week.
Headline voting intention figures
Con: 42% (-)
Lab: 36% (+1)
Lib Dem: 12% (-1)
Brexit Party: 3% (-)
Green: 2% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)
Plaid: 0% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-)
Another party / ind. candidate: 1% (-)
The poll was published exclusively by Reuters: PM Johnson’s lead over Labour narrows slightly – ICM poll
The poll was also covered/referenced by the following media organisations:
‘Yet another poll predicts hung parliament as Labour close in on Tory lead‘, The New European
‘Was This The Day This Deadening General Election Finally Came To Life?‘, Waugh Zone – HuffPost
Which party do the public think has run the best campaign?
ICM this week asked the public to reflect on the election campaign over the last five weeks and to say which party they think has run the best campaign.
Just under three in ten people think that the Conservatives have run the best campaign (28%), while Labour are in a not-too-distant second, with just under a quarter thinking that they have run the best campaign (23%). Only around one in twenty think that the Liberal Democrats have run the best campaign (6%), while a third of people don’t know (32%).
Among ‘Labour Leave’ voters – a key target group for both the Tories and Labour – over four in ten think that Labour has run the best campaign (44%), while 15% think that the Conservatives have run the best campaign.
Among women, the Conservatives and Labour are neck-and-neck in terms of who they think ran the best campaign, with 23% of women saying that the Tories have run the best campaign and 24% saying Labour has. Men are more likely than women to say that the Conservatives have run the best campaign (33%).
Which election outcome do the public think would be best for Britain?
We also asked the public what election outcome they think would be best for Britain, and over a third think that a Conservative majority government would be the best outcome (36%) – a greater proportion than for any other single outcome. One in ten think that a Conservative minority government would be best for Britain (9%).
Just under a quarter think that a Labour majority government would be the best outcome for the country (23%), while 14% think a Labour minority government would be best (14%). One in five people do not know what would be the best outcome for Britain (18%).
Unsurprisingly, over eight in ten of those who intend to vote Conservative think that a Conservative majority government would be best for the country (84%). Meanwhile, six in ten of those who intend to vote Labour think a Labour majority government would be best for Britain (63%) and a sizeable chunk – one in five – of those who say they will vote Labour think that a Labour minority government would be best for the country (21%).
‘Tory Remainers’ – those who voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017 – are slightly less enthusiastic about a Conservative majority government than Tory Leavers. Under six in ten Conservative Remainers think a Conservative majority would be the best outcome (56% vs. 81% of Tory Leavers) and one in five think a Conservative minority would be best (19% vs. 10% of Tory Leavers).
Among ‘Labour Leave’ voters, while four in ten think that a Labour majority government would be best for Britain (38%), one in five think that a Conservative majority government would be best (20%).
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intentions – Data tables – 06-09 Dec 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,011 GB adults (18+) online between 06 December and 09 December 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
