ICM’s second published voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows little change in the parties’ standings compared to last weekend. The Conservative lead has nudged up slightly to eight-points, with the Tories rising one point from last week up to 39% and Labour staying constant at 31%. The Liberal Democrats remain on 15%, while the Brexit Party fall one percentage point to 8%.
The Conservatives continue to perform very strongly among Leave voters and there are indications that the proportion of Leavers intending to vote for the Brexit Party is dropping. Six in ten Leave voters say that they will vote Conservative (61%, up 4 points from last week), while just over one in seven Leave voters say that they will vote for the Brexit Party (15%, down 3 points).
The results to the poll were exclusively published by Reuters: Conservatives’ lead over Labour widens slightly – ICM poll
The poll was covered / referenced by various media organisations:
‘UK Conservatives’ Lead Over Labour Widens Slightly: ICM poll‘, New York Times
ICM will be publishing a new voting intentions poll every Monday up until polling day on 12 December 2019.
Headline voting intention figures:
Con: 39% (+1)
Lab: 31% (-)
Lib Dem: 15% (-)
Brexit Party: 8% (-1)
Green: 3% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)
UKIP: 1% (-)
Plaid: 0% (-)
Another party: 0% (-1)
ICM also asked a couple of more light-hearted questions this week. We asked the nationally representative sample of British adults who they would pick as their next Prime Minister if they could choose from any of the party leaders who stood at the last two general elections or are standing at the upcoming election. Boris Johnson was the clear winner, with three in ten saying that he would be their preferred choice (28%) – nearly double the proportion who choose Jeremy Corbyn (15%).
David Cameron once again bested Ed Miliband, with 7% saying that they would pick Cameron as the next PM if they could and 6% picking Miliband. A lowly 3% would want Theresa May back as PM.
Among ‘Conservative Remainers’ (those who voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017), however, David Cameron seems to retain his appeal. A quarter of Conservative Remainers would pick Cameron as the next PM if they could (24%), putting him neck-and-neck with Boris Johnson (24%) among this group.
We also asked people who they would pick as their next Chancellor of the Exchequer if they could choose from any of the candidates who stood at the last two general elections or are standing at the upcoming election. Sajid Javid came out on top, although he was still only the preferred choice of around one in seven (14%). Worryingly for Labour, Philip Hammond (8%) came ahead of John McDonnell (7%), while Ed Balls (7%) and George Osborne (6%) were not far behind the current shadow Chancellor.
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intentions – Data tables – 08-11 Nov 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,035 GB adults (18+) online between 08 and 11 November 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.