ICM’s third published voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows the Conservatives extending their lead over Labour in the national voting intention figures to ten points (up two points compared to last week). The Conservatives rise three points to 42% – their highest poll rating in published ICM voting intention polls since September 2018 – while Labour make a more modest gain of one point, taking them to 32%. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats fall two percentage points to 13%, while the Brexit Party are down three points to 5%.
There are two methodological changes to note this week, the first one more important than the second:
- We did not show the Brexit Party as an answer option to those respondents who live in constituencies that the Conservatives won in the 2017 general election. Now that we have final confirmation on which parties will be standing in which constituencies, we will, in future voting intention polls, only show respondents parties which are standing in the constituencies in which they live.
- Given UKIP’s consistently low polling (no more than 1%) and due to the limited number of candidates it will be fielding, we did not show UKIP as a separate answer code in this poll. In future polls, we will only show UKIP in the constituencies in which it is standing – 42 in Great Britain (excl. NI)
The results to the poll were exclusively published by Reuters: UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives extend lead over Labour: ICM poll
The poll was also covered / referenced by various media organisations:
‘UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives extend lead over Labour: ICM poll‘, New York Times
ICM will be publishing a new voting intentions poll every Monday up until polling day on 12 December 2019.
Headline voting intention figures:
Con: 42% (+3)
Lab: 32% (+1)
Lib Dem: 13% (-2)
Brexit Party: 5% (-3)
Green: 3% (-)
SNP: 3% (-)
Plaid: 0% (-)
Another party: 2% (+2)
The important context to bear in mind is that this poll was conducted following Nigel Farage’s announcement that the Brexit Party would not be standing candidates in the 317 seats that the Tories won in the 2017 general election. In response, ICM therefore did not show the Brexit Party answer option to respondents who live in these constituencies. The slight bounce in the Conservative poll ratings and the drop in Brexit Party support should be interpreted with this in mind.
Having said that, the Brexit Party vote appears to hold up well among those who were shown the party (i.e. those not living in seats the Tories won in 2017), claiming 10% of the vote among this group. Now that we have final confirmation of which seats the Brexit Party will be contesting, ICM will be able to get an even cleaner read in next week’s poll about the performance of the Brexit Party in these areas.
ICM also added a few other constituency cross-breaks to the tables this week. For instance, in Labour/Conservative marginals in England & Wales, where Labour or the Conservatives had a majority of less than 10% of the vote in 2017, the Tories lead Labour by 9 points (43% vs. 34%).
In constituencies that voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum (according to estimates collated by the House of Commons Library), the Conservatives lead Labour by 5 points (37% vs. 32%), while in constituencies that voted to Leave, the Conservative lead is well into double figures – 12 points – with the Tories on 45% and Labour on 33%.
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intentions – Data tables – 15-18 Nov 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,010 GB adults (18+) online between 15 and 18 November 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.