ICM’s first published voting intention poll of the general election campaign shows a seven-point Conservative lead over Labour, with the Tories coming in at 38% and Labour at 31%. The Liberal Democrats and The Brexit Party are poised at 15% and 9%, respectively. With a highly volatile electorate, it will be fascinating to see how the polls develop and shift over the coming weeks of the campaign.
The results to the poll were first published by Reuters: PM Johnson’s Conservatives have seven-point lead over Labour – ICM
The poll was covered / referenced extensively in the media:
‘UK opinion polls: Boris Johnson’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn narrows in latest general election poll‘, London Evening Standard
‘What do the polls tell us so far about the 2019 election?‘, New Statesman
ICM will be publishing a new voting intentions poll every Monday up until polling day on 12 December 2019.
Headline voting intention figures:
Lib Dem: 15%
Brexit Party: 9%
Another party: 1%
- Nearly eight in ten of those who voted Tory at the 2017 general election say that they will vote Conservative again (77%), compared to just over seven in ten 2017 Labour voters who say that they will vote Labour again (73%). Just over one in ten of those who voted Conservative in 2017 now intend to vote for the Brexit Party (11%), a similar proportion to that of 2017 Labour voters who now intend to vote Liberal Democrat (12%).
- The Conservatives seem to be doing a better job of capturing 2016 Leave voters than Labour are doing of capturing 2016 Remain voters. Just under six in ten Leave voters intend to vote Tory (57%), while less than half of Remain voters intend to vote Labour (45%). Two in ten Leave voters say that they will break for the Brexit Party (18%), compared to the nearly three in ten Remain voters who say they will vote Liberal Democrat (27%).
- Conservatives appear to be performing impressively among ‘Conservative Remainers’ (those who voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017), with nearly seven in ten saying that they intend to stick with the Tories (67%).
Full data tables: ICM – Voting intentions – Data tables – 01-04 Nov 19
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,047 GB adults (18+) online between 01 and 04 November 2019. The data has been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Great Britain and is weighted by age, gender, social grade, household tenure, work status, and region. The data is also weighted by 2017 general election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by a poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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