Our last Guardian/ICM poll showed the Tories opening up a three percentage point lead over Labour. With UKIP falling to a record low of 1%, it was plausible that this was the start of a shift away from the deadlocked polls we’ve got used to since the last election.
When it comes to public opinion, we should never speak too soon. This week’s polling shows UKIP bouncing back up to 4%, whilst the Conservatives drop two percentage points, reducing their lead over Labour to a single percent. Figures are shown below, with any change versus our previous Guardian/ICM poll in brackets:
Conservative: 42% (-2)
Labour: 41% (nc)
Lib Dems: 7% (-1)
Greens: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+3)
SNP: 3% (nc)
We also repeated two Brexit questions last seen in the Brexit mega poll run back in June. As well as asking how people would vote in a second referendum, we also asked about support for another referendum after Brexit negotiation conclude.
Again, what is remarkable here is the lack of any substantial change in public opinion on both of these questions. All of the results are within 2-3% of the percentages seen in January. It appears that there hasn’t been any significant change in the support of opposition to a second referendum in these circumstances and overall or the voting intention in a second referendum if it were to take place. Quite simply, people aren’t changing their minds on Brexit – it’s still the case that around 9 in 10 (89%) of those who voted either Remain and Leave back in 2016 would vote the same way if there were a second referendum held tomorrow. The wafer-thin lead for Remain can again be attributed to those who did not vote in 2016 or can’t remember how they voted breaking in favour of Remain (28%) over leave (12%). The results for each answer, with the figures from January, are shown below
On 23rd June 2016, a referendum was held on if the UK should remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.
If there was another EU referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?
- For the UK to Remain in the EU (Jan: 45%; Apr: 45%)
- For the UK to Leave the EU (Jan: 43%; Apr: 44%)
- I wouldn’t vote (Jan: 6%; Apr: 5%)
- Prefer not to say (Jan: 1%; Apr: 1%)
- Don’t know (Jan: 5%; Apr: 5%)
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I think the public should have the chance to take a final decision on whether or not to leave the EU in another referendum when the outcome of the negotiation is known?
- Strongly agree (Jan: 28%; Apr: 30%)
- Tend to agree (Jan: 19%; Apr: 17%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (Jan: 14%; Apr: 11%)
- Tend to disagree (Jan: 11%; Apr: 12%)
- Strongly disagree (Jan: 23%; Apr: 25%)
- Don’t know (Jan: 6%; Apr: 6%)
Jan: net agree: 47%; net disagree 34%
Apr: net agree: 47%; net disagree 36%
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,012 adults aged 18+, between 6th – 8th April 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.