• Final General Election 2015 Poll

    In the full and final ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election, Labour edge into a 1-point lead compared to yesterday, with the parties holding its 35% share but the Tories dropping back 1-point.. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:

    Conservative 34%           (-1)
    Labour 35%                       (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9%    (nc)
    UKIP 11%                           (-2)
    Green 4%                           (-1)
    SNP 5%                               (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1%               (nc)
    Other 1%                            (nc)

    All the final polls are now in, and if any late swing has been present nearly all suggest Labour to have been the beneficiary (to this point).

    This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:

    Conservative 35%
    Labour 32%
    Liberal Democrats 14%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 2,023 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 3-6th May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.