• Guardian Poll – September 2015

    The latest ICM/Guardian poll shows a slight drop in the Conservative (38%) share of the vote, with newly elected Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn enjoying an immediate honeymoon boost of 1-point (32%), which of course, is most likely to be a function of normal sampling variation.

    Full poll numbers are:

    Conservative 38% (-2)
    Labour 32% (+1)
    UKIP 13% (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Green 3%
    SNP 5%
    PC 1%
    Other 1%

  • Guardian Poll – August 2015

    Conservatives (+2) breach the political symbolic 40% mark, the first time they have done so since Jan 2012. With Labour (-3) hanging around their election showing (31%) the 9-point lead represents the largest in the ICM/Guardian series for them since Jan 2010, and their biggest in government since May 1992 (courtesy of Number Cruncher Politics).

    Had ICM retained the pre-election adjustment process, this poll would have shown the Conservatives on 39% and Labour on 32%.

    While Labour fights for a leader and its soul, the Liberal Democrats continue to languish in single figures (7%), with UKIP on 10% and the Green on 4%.

  • Guardian Poll – July 2015

    In the July Guardian/ICM poll, the Conservatives retain a solid, if slightly reduced lead of 4-points. They stand on 38% (up 1-point) on last month, with Labour benefitting from some switching to the tune of 3-points, rising to 34%. The Liberal Democrats shed a couple (6%) and UKIP stand fast on 13%. The Greens and other parties drop 1 apiece.

  • ISIS poll for Daily Mirror

    A year on from Islamic State’s sweeping offensive through much of Sunni dominated Iraq and Syria, David Cameron has framed the bid to defeat IS as the ‘struggle of our generation’. Among the British public however there is no substantive confidence that it’s possible to defeat the threat posed by Islamic State. When asked, under half (47%) of the British public think that it is ‘possible to beat the threat at the present time’, while a third (32%) think that it is ‘not possible to beat the threat’.

    The Government are widely expected to go to the Commons in the next few weeks to request an extension of the UK’s air operations against Islamic State, something which a sizeable proportion of the public are likely to support. Almost half (48%) of the British public think that Britain and its allies should take part in ‘targeted air strikes against Islamic State military operations’ to defeat the threat of Islamic State.

    Overall, there is little appetite among the British public for a robust ground operation against Islamic State. When asked, just three in ten (30%) said that they think the UK and other countries should send ground troops into places like Syria and Iraq. Despite being an option that doesn’t involve the use of troops in any sort of combat role, less than half (46%) of the British public support building up local armies in the territories where Islamic State are currently operating in. Interestingly, two fifths (41%) of the British public think that Britain and its allies should ‘try to assassinate the leaders of the Islamic state in a so-called ‘decapitation strategy’’. Men are far more likely than women to think that Britain and its allies should intervene in any way. Particularly where air strikes are concerned, where three fifths of men are in support of air strikes compared to just two fifths of women (58% vs 39%). Similarly, those aged between 18 and 24 are the least likely to think that Britain and its allies should intervene across the board.

    The British public are firmly split as to whether any future interventions by Britain and its allies would make the region a safer place. Just a third (32%) think that any intervention can affect the region positively, while a slightly smaller proportion (29%) think that any interventions will actually make the region more dangerous. This number rises to two fifths (40%) among those aged between 18 and 24.

    While a substantial number of the British public think that the UK and its allies should take part in targeted air strikes against Islamic State, there is clearly significant discord surrounding the path that Britain should take to defeat Islamic State. If the UK is to act in Syria and Iraq, there is considerable doubt among the British Public that it will have a positive impact on the region. It seems that the British public might still be conditioned by the experience of long campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, which will undoubtedly be the biggest stumbling block to further public support for any British action against Islamic State.

    Given the nature of the IS threat, and recent atrocities in Tunisia, France and elsewhere, it is unsurprising that ISIS is viewed much less favourably in overall terms than it was when we last asked the question in 2014. Now, a full 85% have an unfavourable impression, with 80% saying they are VERY unfavourably disposed toward it. One in ten (9%) say they have a favourable impression. Read more here.

    Two surveys were carried out by ICM Unlimited, the first on 1st-3rd July 2015 amongst 2001 online respondents across GB aged 18+. A second survey among 2,016 adults aged 18+ was undertaken on 3-5th July. Both surveys were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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  • Public split on Heathrow expansion

    With the Davies report solidly backing a 3rd runway for Heathrow, ICM tested opinion on whether the government should legislate in line with proposals. Seemingly just like the Cabinet, the public are split right down the middle, with one third in favour of Heathrow expansion (32%), one third against it (35%), and one third not knowing which way to jump (33%).

    Londoners are split more than most (37% vs 37%) but are most likely to have taken a view on the subject, along with near neighbours in the SE region.

    Men (42%) are almost twice as likely as women (23%) to think the runway should be cleared for take-off, with the most affluent AB group (39%), residents of the South East (40%) most supportive. A slight age gap is present, with opposition percolating amongst the more elderly age groups, and among the DEs.

    ICM Unlimited interviews an online sample of 2,001 adults aged 18+ on 1-3rd July 2015. Interviews were conducted acorss the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Labour Leadership recognition poll

    The contest for the next leader of the Labour Party is heating up in line with the field being narrowed down, with just four candidates left in play. All will confess to much work needing to be done, not just in terms of developing a support (or indeed policy) base, but well, in simply communicating to the electorate who they are, never mind what they stand for.

    They might even argue that right now, it doesn’t matter if potential leaders’ public recognition is low, which it is. The public, of course, do not vote in Labour’s leadership contest: only MPs, party members, and unions are eligible for that.

    But let’s not kid ourselves, just like that walk-in moment for newly-weds as they view their future home for the first time, or indeed that critical first 15-seconds interviewees have to create that “we have to have you here” impression on their job inquisitor, the time is now for party leaders to positively imprint themselves on the people they will depend on to propel them toward destination Number 10.

    Just ask Ed Miliband, or Iain Duncan Smith for that matter. They never overcame the image issues that held them back right from the beginning. Indeed, in the public’s mind, there’s no coming back for leaders who aren’t perceived to have ‘it’. So better make sure you do, starting now…..

    Indeed now is the chance to shine for the likes of Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall and even Yvette Cooper, whose highest prize to date was the Department of Work & Pensions brief – and who is also seemingly known as Ed Balls other half (indeed, she was named as ‘Yvette Balls’ by a small chunk of the poll sample).

    On the plus side, politicians who have never particularly basked in public recognition have a clean slate. It is, perhaps, a little more comfortable a journey for Andy Burnham, whose recognition of 23% was easily higher than the rest of the pack. Yvette Cooper followed 6-points behind (17%), with Liz Kendall (10%) and Jeremy Corbyn (9%) a further step behind the pace. For the latter two, low figures are probably to be expected, not previously being high profile figures and/or late entrant to the hustings. They will hope that their recognition in the Labour Beauty Parade – and perceived wider popular appeal to boot – now surge upwards.

    Every respondent was shown a picture of each potential leader, and asked to name them in a free text box. All verbatim contributions were individually assessed, and only marked correct if the surname was correct or spelt only slightly incorrectly such that it was clear that the surname were known. The results are as follows:

    ANDY BURNHAM | CORRECT 23% | INCORRECT: 10% | DON’T KNOW: 66%
    YVETTE COOPER | CORRECT: 17% | INCORRECT: 10% | DON’T KNOW: 74%
    LIZ KENDALL | CORRECT 10% | INCORRECT: 9% | DON’T KNOW: 81%
    JEREMY CORBYN | CORRECT: 9% | INCORRECT: 9% | DON’T KNOW: 82%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed an online sample of 2,006 adults aged 18+ on 19-21st June 2015. Interviews were conducted across Britain and the results have been weighted to the profile of all British adults.

  • Guardian Poll – June 2015

    The first post-2015 national voting intention poll from ICM almost exactly mirrors the actual result of the election, with the Conservatives enjoying a 6-point lead over Labour. UKIP re-establish their 13% share, while the Liberal Democrats remain in the same lowly territory they found themselves in the real poll last month.

    It should be noted that all ICM methodological techniques are under review, and while this poll reflects pre-2015 approaches (with the exception of past vote weighting to the 2015 General Election), we will likely to be refining and/or introducing new measures once we have the full evidence base to support them.

  • Final General Election 2015 Poll

    In the full and final ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election, Labour edge into a 1-point lead compared to yesterday, with the parties holding its 35% share but the Tories dropping back 1-point.. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:

    Conservative 34%           (-1)
    Labour 35%                       (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9%    (nc)
    UKIP 11%                           (-2)
    Green 4%                           (-1)
    SNP 5%                               (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1%               (nc)
    Other 1%                            (nc)

    All the final polls are now in, and if any late swing has been present nearly all suggest Labour to have been the beneficiary (to this point).

    This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:

    Conservative 35%
    Labour 32%
    Liberal Democrats 14%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 2,023 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 3-6th May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Preliminary Prediction Poll

    In the preliminary ICM/Guardian prediction for the 2015 General Election – which will be updated after further interviewing tonight, 6th May – the parties are deadlocked, with the Conservative small campaign lead wiped out, with both parties now standing on the same 35%. The poll suggests the following vote shares, compared to their standings last week:

    Conservative 35%         (nc)
    Labour 35%                  (+3)
    Liberal Democrat 9%     (nc)
    UKIP 11%                     (-2)
    Green 3%                      (-2)
    SNP 5%                        (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1%            (nc)
    Other 1%                      (nc)

    The Conservative vote share has been solid for two weeks’, so far denying them any prospect of the much talked about incumbency effect. Any benefit they derive now will be swing, of the very latest kind. In fact it is Labour that moves up in our preliminary final poll, hitting their stride at exactly the right time. Both UKIP and the Greens drop a couple of points compared to last week, both within margins of error but still placing UKIP with a share four times their 2010 level.

    This conventional poll element contrasts somewhat with the ‘Wisdom Index’ result, which projects a 3-point victory margin for the blue team. The approach was the most accurate pre-election prediction before the 2010 election, with respondents asked what they think the result will be, rather than how they will themselves vote in it. This time around, the groupthink suggests that the Tories will get the same 35%, but that Labour will only secure 32%. It is the Liberal Democrats who are thought not to fall so far, with the party projected to get 14% rather than the 9% predicted on the orthodox element of the poll. UKIP are predicted to get 10%, as are the ‘net’ of all other parties. The Wisdom projection is:

    Conservative 35%
    Labour 32%
    Liberal Democrats 14%
    UKIP 10%
    Others 10%

    In other news, personal approval ratings remains largely static, with the Prime Minister moving in a positive direction, up to +14 from +12 last week. Ed Miliband has seemingly had a good week, brushing off ‘Ed Stone’ comments to improve all the way from -29 to -20. This campaign has seen the opposition leader come into his own, and end up with pretty conventional ‘approval ratings’ – certainly on a parr with Nick Clegg (-18) and Nigel Farage (-16).

    The NHS is the issue that people have thought about most, with 79% saying they have stopped and pondered over it with regard to their vote intention, with the prospect of further cuts (57%) and squeezed living standard following up in the second rank (51%). The government deficit (48%) and tax rises (46%) then follow up, with the possibility of smaller parties holding the next government to ransom (39%) last on the list of possibilities presented to them. Much has been made of this b the Tory camp in the last week or two, but evidently it is less a concern to people than the tangible impacts that hit them in the pocket, or otherwise directly in their lives.

    Finally, the prospect of the next government splits people almost in a four-way tie. A Conservative majority would be well received by 25%, but this is only 2-points more than the 23% who want to see Labour governing on their own. A Conservative-led coalition (22%) also narrowly defeats the alternative of a Labour-led equivalent.

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1,560 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 3-6th May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. The poll will be updated on the morning of May 7th, with an additional c450 interviews added into the sample already achieved.

  • Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll

    A new poll conducted by ICM for The Guardian shows Nick Clegg is on course to hold onto his seat in Sheffield Hallam. When respondents are presented with named candidates, the topline results are as follows:

    • Ian Walker (Conservative) – 12%
    • Oliver Coppard (Labour) – 35%
    • Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) – 42%
    • Peter Garbutt (Greens) – 3%
    • Joe Jenkins (Ukip) – 7%
    • Other 2%

    However, a different picture emerges when respondents are asked to only think about the political parties:

    • Conservative – 21%
    • Labour -34%
    • Liberal Democrat – 32%
    • Greens – 4%
    • Ukip – 8%
    • Other – 1%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 501 adults by telephone in the political constituency of Sheffield Hallam on 1-3rd May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the constituency and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults living there. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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