• The Guardian – April 2018 Poll 2

    The political pressure had been mounting on Amber Rudd from the fallout of the Windrush scandal. It seems this pressure became too much over the weekend when, late Sunday evening the news broke that Rudd had resigned.


    But did the right person resign? We asked the British public who was most to blame for the problems faced by the Windrush-generation. The most popular answer was to blame successive Labour and Conservative governments, with 3 in 10 (30%) holding both Labour and Conservatives responsible. Nevertheless, in light of Rudd’s resignation, it seems all the more striking that four times as many people blame Theresa May (23%) as Amber Rudd (6%). Indeed, more people blame May than blame Home Office and UK Border Agency staff (17%).


    The grim reading for May continues, as our poll suggests that the public are increasingly sceptical that negotiations will conclude successfully before 29th March 2019. We’ve asked this question twice before (in October and December 2017), but this weekend’s poll show the lowest proportion of the public believing that negotiations will conclude successfully before Brexit Day (28%, down from 35% in December), with 47% believing they will not conclude successfully (up from 39%).


    However, there remains one glimmer of light in these results for the Conservatives. Put quite simply, it does not look like the British public are enamoured with the alternatives to the Conservative government. Despite the negative results shown above, the Conservatives maintain their vote share on our headline vote intention polling, on 42%, with Labour dropping two percentage points, down to 39%. This leaves a Conservative lead of 3% which, while small, matches the biggest lead for either party observed on our regular Guardian/ICM polls since the 2017 election in our second poll last month.


    And it’s not just on the two main parties that the public is split in its opinion. On Friday afternoon the news broke that US President Donald Trump would visit the UK in July for talks with Theresa May. Our poll suggests that a third (33%) support the visit, a third (33%) are ambivalent (answering ‘neither support not oppose’), and around a third oppose the visit (31%). But scratch beneath the surface, and there are some interesting differences. There’s a strong Remain/Leave divide, with more than twice as many 2016 Remainers as Leavers opposing the visit (44% vs. 18%). There are also big differences by party support, with a majority of those intending to vote Conservative (53%) supporting the visit, compared to only 1 in 5 Labour voters (21%).


    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,026 adults aged 18+, between 27th – 29th April 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.


  • The Guardian – February 2018 Poll

    The past week has seen the ‘Westminster bubble’ absorbed by the infighting, Brexit policy confusion, and potential leadership challengers to Theresa May’s Conservative government. Yet the British public remain largely unmoved in their overall voting intention. Comparing to our mega-poll released just over a week ago, the Conservatives remain unchanged on 41% and Labour slip down just one point to 40%.


    Last Thursday the Lib Dems had a surprise council by-election win over Labour in Sunderland, where they saw their vote increase by 49.5 percentage points to claim the Pallion seat formerly held by Labour. Whilst this is not replicated in our nationally representative polling, we do see their vote share bump up by one percentage point, from 7% to 8%. UKIP and the SNP remain unchanged on 4% and 3% respectively.


    However, the main story coming through in this poll mirrors much of the sentiment picked up in the Guardian/ICM Brexit mega-poll published just over a week ago: the British public are becoming more and more negative towards how Brexit is going. Brits think Brexit is going badly, and are far from agreement on which politician could make a better job of it.


    Back at the start of December, we asked how the Brexit process of the UK leaving the EU was going – only 21% of the British public said it was going well, with 51% saying it was going badly. Two months later, only 16% of the British public think the Brexit process is going well, with an increased majority (53%) now thinking it is going badly.


    These figures make especially concerning reading for the Tories, as now fewer than a third of Conservative voters think Brexit is going well (32%), down from almost 2 in 5 (39%) at the start of December. Indeed, it’s hard to find one substantial group of voters who think the Brexit process is going well. It may not be surprising to see that only 12% of 2016 Remainers think Brexit is going well, but it seems stark that even amongst 2016 Leave voters, less than a quarter (23%) say Brexit is going well.


    The only solace that Theresa May could take from these results is that voters are not clear on which politician they would prefer to be in charge of Brexit. We asked respondents to tell us if they agreed or disagreed with the Brexit views of Tony Blair, Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, and Keir Starmer. None of these politicians enjoyed ‘net positive’ support for their position on Brexit. In short, for each and every one of the politicians we asked about, more of the British public disagree with their Brexit views than agree with them.


    Of the politicians we asked about, Boris Johnson attracted the most support for his views on Brexit. However, only 32% of the British public say they agree with his Brexit stance, which in turn is only one percent above agreement with Theresa May’s Brexit views (31%), while a similar proportion (30%) of the British public say they agree with Nigel Farage’s views on the sort of Brexit the UK should adopt. By comparison, Jeremy Corbyn’s views on Brexit win the agreement of 23% of the British public – although many more (39%) disagree with him.


    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,021 adults aged 18+, between 2nd – 4th February 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.