People’s Vote Marginals Poll for Represent Us
These tables present the findings from research into the voting intentions of 1,701 respondents in 107 marginal constituencies across England, Wales, and Scotland under different hypothetical scenarios following a UK Parliament vote against the final Brexit deal negotiated by the UK government, conducted by ICM Unlimited on behalf of Represent Us.
The findings reveal that, in the scenario of a general election following Parliament voting against the government’s final Brexit deal, the Labour Party would be electorally better off promising to support a popular vote on their re-negotiated Brexit deal as opposed to ruling one out. This pattern is especially pronounced in the 48 ‘Heavily leave’ constituencies.
- First Voting Intentions Question, Q5: If Parliament votes against the final Brexit deal … there may be a general election. Opposition parties will probably promise to negotiate a better deal. Which party would you vote for in a general election in these circumstances?
- Second Voting Intentions Question, Q6: Which party would you vote for in that general election if… in their general election manifestos, Labour, the Lib Dems, and the SNP promise that the people will get to vote on any Brexit deal, but the Conservatives rule this out?
- Third Voting Intentions Question, Q7: Which party would you vote for in that general election if… in their general election manifestos, only the Lib Dems and the SNP promise that the people will get to vote on any Brexit deal, while Labour and the Conservatives rule this out?
Summary of ICM Voting Intentions figures at each question for each sample: ICM VI figures at Q5, Q6, Q7
England & Wales tables, 84 constituencies, n=1201: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Eng&Wales (18-09-18)
‘Remain / evenly balanced’ tables, 34 constituencies, n=500: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Remain & balanced (18-09-18)
‘Heavily leave’ tables, 48 constituencies, n=701: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Leave (18-09-18)
Scotland tables, 25 constituencies, n=500: Represent Us Poll_bpc_Scotland (18-09-18)
ICM interviewed a sample of 1,701 adults aged 18+ in the relevant constituencies online between 4 and 12 September 2018. Demographic quotas were set to ensure a representative sample. At the analysis stage, data has been weighted to the profile of each of the target populations: the 82 England and Wales constituencies (n=1,201), the 34 ‘Remain / evenly-balanced’ constituencies (n=500) and the 48 ‘Heavily leave’ constituencies (n=701) that comprise the England & Wales sample, and the 25 Scotland constituencies (n=500).