• The Guardian – August 2018 Poll 1

    Brexit: Deal or No Deal?

    Brexit infographic V3.2

     

    Click here to view the above graphic as a high-quality PDF.

     

    This week’s headline voting intention results are broadly in line with two weeks ago (20th – 22nd July) with Labour enjoying a slender one percentage point lead. In other words, it’s still level pegging which may be a positive thing for both of Britain’s two big parties, with the Tories fighting a civil war over the EU and Labour embroiled in accusations of anti-Semitism.

     

    That said, of the two leaders, Theresa May is perhaps likely to be disappointed that Labour’s poll rating has not been more dented by the anti-Semitism issue given the damaging publicity it attracted last week and over the weekend. It represents the second successive poll where Labour has enjoyed a lead over the Conservatives, the first time since December-January.

     

    If anything, the main parties – including the Lib Dems – have slipped back a little at the expense of Ukip which is polling at its highest level since 12-14 May 2017 when it last recorded 6%. It represents a continuous improvement for the party since the nadir of 16-18 March this year when it sank to just 1%.

     

    Conservative

    39% (-1)*

    Labour

    40% (-1)

    Lib Dem

    7% (-1)

    SNP

    4% (+1)

    PC

    *% (nc)

    Green

    3% (nc)

    UKIP

    6% (+1)

    Other

    *% (nc)

    * Change from previous poll in brackets

     

    We also asked a new question in order to tease out the nuances surrounding public opinion toward the UK’s ongoing negotiations to leaving the EU. The overall results are set out below including a net ‘UK leaves with a deal’ category to aid our analysis. Key findings show that:

     

    • When asked what is best for the country as a whole, more people say that the UK should leave with some sort of deal rather than without a deal (42% vs 16%). Three in ten (31%) believe it would be best if the UK stayed in after a second referendum.
    • When asked what would be worst of the country as a whole, over two-fifths (43%) of the public state leaving the EU without a deal.
    • There are subtle but important differences in opinion between what is best for the country and for them personally. For instance, a higher % believe staying in the EU is best for them personally than it is for the UK overall (36% vs 31%).
    • Whether for the country or personally, a Canada style deal is seen as more beneficial than the prime minister’s Chequers plan or a Norway style arrangement.
    • The majority of Brits believe that Brexit will actually happen but there is uncertainty about the precise outcome. Just under two-fifths (37%) state the country is most likely to leave with some form of deal but a significant minority (27%) think there will be no deal. A further quarter say the UK will leave but with a deal unresolved or that Brexit will be delayed. As many as half (50%) say the UK staying in the EU is least likely to occur.

     

    A. Best for the country as a whole B. Worst for the country as a whole C. Best for you personally D. Worst for you personally E. Most likely to happen F. Least likely to happen

    UK leaves without a deal

    16% 43% 18% 43% 27% 18%

    NET: UK leaves with a deal

    42% 13% 36% 12% 37% 18%

    The UK leaves the EU on time with a deal along the lines set out in the Chequers plan

    (10%) (5%) (10%) (4%) (16%) (6%)

    The UK leaves the EU on time with a ‘harder’ version of Chequers more like a Canada style free trade deal

    (22%) (4%) (17%) (5%) (10%) (6%)

    The UK leaves the EU on time with a ‘softer’ version of Chequers more like a Norway arrangement

    (10%) (4%) (9%) (4%) (11%) (5%)

    UK leaves but with deal unresolved

    3% 9% 3% 9% 15% 6%

    Brexit is delayed

    8% 7% 7% 6% 14% 8%

    UK decides to stay in EU after second referendum

    31% 29% 36% 30% 7% 50%
    TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

    100%

     

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,049 adults aged 18+, between 3rd and 5th August 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Sun on Sunday, Christmas Poll 2017

    Excepting the fact that most of the fieldwork was conducted before the Government was defeated in a Commons vote on Wednesday evening, the EU deal negotiated by Theresa May appears to have strengthened her position – at least for the time being. Her own personal leader rating has improved in relation to Jeremy Corbyn, the Tories are only 1 point behind Labour in the polls, there is no clear frontrunner to replace her as Tory leader and a majority think she should continue as PM to at least the end of Brexit negotiations.

    Moreover, amidst splits in the Government over policy towards the EU, half the country including a majority of Remainers and Tory voters believe the Government should just get on with the job of leaving the EU, while there is public confusion around the Labour party’s position on Brexit.

    However, danger lurks around the corner for Mrs May since the public feel the divorce bill is too high, they support a ‘meaningful vote’ for parliament on a final deal and are split on whether the exit date should be extended in the event of no deal. One thing is clear – 2018 is shaping up to be as equally momentous as 2017.

    Click here to see the Sun on Sunday article: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5156114/theresa-may-brexit-poll-support-conservative-party/

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,004 adults aged 18+ online, on 12-14 December 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.