• The Guardian – January poll (1)

    The first ICM/Guardian poll of 2017 continued where 2016 left off, with a repeat of the commanding 14-point Conservative lead present within the final ICM/Guardian of 2016, albeit with marginal upticks in the share for both parties on this occasion.

    Movements in the data are well within standard margins of error, and thus as likely to be a function of sample size as anything else.

    Conservative 42% (+1)

    Labour 28% (+1)

    Liberal Democrat 9% (nc)

    UKIP 12% (-2)

    Green 4% (+1)

    SNP 4% (nc)

    PC *% (nc)

    Other *% (-1)

  • Sun on Sunday Corbyn re-election leadership poll

    Jeremy Corbyn might well be on the cusp of retaining the Labour crown, but he’s also on the cusp of electoral Armageddon. Rarely can there have been such a dis-connect between the acclaim of his supporters and the derision of the public.

    The truly scary proposition for Britain’s great party of the Left is that only 16% of the population view it as likely winners of the next General Election. Almost as many (13%) don’t see Labour back in power for at least 20 years, but  43% of Labour supporters think the next election will return them to power.

    In overall terms, Labour drop to 26%, their lowest score from ICM in this political cycle, and depths not plumbed since Gordon Brown’s 2009 crisis around the ‘election that never was’. With the Tories stable on 41%, the reinstalled leader has a job of work to do.

    And yet a paltry 19% think he’s the man to do it, although 45% of those still intending to vote Labour think so. Just as few think he has the ideas and personal characteristics to make Britain a better place, but it almost doubles to 35% among Labour’s core. Belief that Captain Corbyn will press the reset button on an exciting new style of engaging politics or indeed a kinder, gentler politics gets short shrift too. Only about a quarter of the public are convinced, but well over half of Labour comrades buy in.

    If Corbyn stumbles on the personal attributes front can he count on that other component of effective leadership: policy? Nope. There’s outright rejection for many likely offerings, in particular around defence issues. Just 9% think he should withdraw Britain from NATO, 18% would like to see defence spending cuts and 21% support the scrapping of Britain’s nuclear deterrent. More than FOUR times as many people trust Theresa May to look after the safety and security of Britain than trust Corbyn.

    Abolishing the Tory benefits cap that prevents claimants receiving more than £500 per week garners 20% approval, but at least in this case more Labour supporters reject it than like it.

    A sympathetic eye on Syrian refugees does nothing more than raise eyebrows, just 18% would support more being allowed in.

    At least commuters might appreciate a little government intervention. Nearly, but not quite half the population would support their re-nationalisation, about the only policy that appears to have a little likeability.

    Perhaps the only consoling news is that the next generation of potential Labour leaders is, to put it mildly, thin on the ground. Chukka Umunna gets some name recognition as the next leader but only 9% of voters point him out. Dan Jarvis receives 4% and Tristrum Hunt 3%.

    Link tothe Sun on Sunday article: http://bit.ly/2dvEOB4

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,015 adults aged 18+, on 21-23rd September 2016. Data has been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Vote Intention Poll – 12-15 August

    In ICM’s latest poll, the Conservatives continue to hold a strong vote share – well ahead of Labour – although support has dropped by 3 percentage points since our July poll. The full voting intention shares are:

    Conservative: 40% (-3)

    Labour: 28% (+1)

    UKIP: 14% (+1)

    Liberal Democrat: 8% (=)

    SNP 4% (=)

    Green 4% (=)

    Plaid Cymru 1% (=)

    Other 1% (+1)

  • Vote Intention Poll – July 22-24th 2016

    In the latest ICM Unlimited poll, the Labour Party share of the vote continues to drop steeply, now down to 27% – a figure not seen (in the ICM/Guardian) series since October 2009. It drops 2-points from our most recent published poll (13-15th July) with the Conservatives up +4 on the same poll, and again at a level not seen since the same October 2009 poll.

    Clearly, the relative calm associated with the handover of power from David Cameron to Theresa May, allied to the current Labour leadership challenge weighs heavily on electors’ minds.

    The shares are:

    Conservative 43% (+4)

    Labour 27% (-2)

    UKIP 13% (-1)

    Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)

    SNP 4% (nc)

    Green 4% (nc)

    Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)

    Other *% (-1)

  • Vote intention poll

    The latest vote intention figures include a number of methodological changes that have been in the pipeline for some time, but needed the reinforcement of a successful outing at the EU referendum before full confidence in them could be established. Given momentous events at Westminster with today’s news that Theresa May is the sole politician left standing in the Conservative’s leadership race (and that the changes had little impact compared to last week’s more pre-changes publication), it seems as good a time as any to introduce them now, allowing an ICM benchmark to be set at the outset of Theresa May’s likely leadership of the party.

    In summary, the ICM vote intention numbers are based on the following:

    1. The release of email invites staggered over a weekend in order to prevent certain types of respondent bed blocking geo-demographic quotas (introduced pre-referendum).
    2. Additional quotas set on voting in the 2015 General Election, allowing for DK/Refusal contributions (introduced late 2015).
    3. Past vote weighting to the 2015 result. The impact of this is negligible, given the application of political quotas as stated in (2) immediately above.
    4. Replacement of the traditional turnout modelling scheme based on the 1-10 probability of actually voting in General Elections. This scheme is no longer fit for purpose in an age of overstating turnout, both in total and relative terms. Instead, ICM has constructed a turnout probability matrix cross-referencing age and social grade, modelled to 2015 actual turnout levels via estimates from various sources, including the British Election Studies (New).
    5. The introduction of political interest weighting, also based on BES numbers (New).
    6. Partial refuser and total refuser post-survey adjustment, both introduced after the 2015 General Election.

     

    The combined impact of these changes is small, compared to this poll but based on last week’s methods, or indeed last week’s pre-change poll but based these methods applied. As a rough guide, the impact is to add 1-point to the Conservatives, while taking off 1-point from Labour.

    The voting figures are:

    Conservatives 38%

    Labour 30%

    Lib Dems 8%

    UKIP 15%

    SNP 5%

    Green 4%

    Other *%