• Sun on Sunday, Nov-Dec 2017 Poll

    Amidst the cold of the British winter, the country is gearing up for the marriage of Prince Harry and his American girlfriend, Meghan Markle, at Windsor Castle in May. Predictably, there has been extensive domestic and international media coverage of the engagement, prompting many commentators to suggest that it may lighten the spirits of a country still polarised from the aftermath of the EU referendum.

    New polling by ICM for the Sun on Sunday among a nationally representative sample of the general public suggests that most people think the royal wedding will be a positive thing for Royal Family itself and among the population as a whole. Seven in ten (71%) people believe it will lead to a general ‘feel-good factor’ for the Royal’s and six in ten (59%) say the same about the general mood of the country.

    However, people are split in terms of whether they think the couple’s marriage will be a boost for British businesses: 40% say it will lead to a feel-good factor for the UK economy and 42% say it will not. Moreover, fewer people say that the wedding of Prince Harry and Ms Markle will lead to a feel-good factor in the Conservative Government (26% compared to 41% who say not) as well as themselves personally (33% vs 53% who say not). Overall, the research suggests that it will lighten the spirits of the nation but will not necessarily benefit them materially.

    The results of our poll also show support for the wedding in the content of Ms Markle being an American actress, of mixed ethnicity and a divorcee. The majority of the public agree (63%) that it makes the Royal Family look modern and more in touch with most British families (just 11% disagree) and that the couple will make great ambassadors for the UK and its people (61% agree and 9% disagree). While some have suggested that the glitz undermines the traditional respectability of the Monarchy, this is not a view widely held: twice as many people disagree as agree that it makes the Royal Family more like showbusiness than a serious institution (48% vs 22%).

    While Theresa May will be disappointed that the royal wedding is unlikely to give the Tories a bounce in the polls, they trail Labour by just a single percentage point with the Conservatives on 40% and Labour 41% if a general election was held tomorrow. Labour are unchanged and the Conservatives down one point since ICM’s most recent poll for The Guardian, conducted last weekend.

    Moreover, when set against fraught Brexit negotiations with Brussels for agreeing a transition deal and long-term trade arrangement, Mrs May will be pleased to lead Jeremy Corbyn (by 40% to 32%) when asked who would make the best prime minster. However, in a sign of how difficult things have been for the Conservatives since the general election, Mrs May’s lead over Mr Corbyn has fallen from 21 to 8 points since May.

    It’s also the case that Mr Corbyn is perceived to be doing a better job as Labour leader than Mrs May is performing as prime minister. Corbyn registers a +3 score, with 41% describing him as doing a good job including 79% of Labour voters: in contrast, the PM records a -18 rating, with 32% of the public and 70% of Tory voters stating that she does a good job.

    Vince Cable has work to do to get himself and the Lib Dems noticed. Not only do more people think he is doing a bad than good job (31% versus 19%), but his support among his own supporters is lower than for any other party (62%).

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,050 adults aged 18+ online, on 29 November–1 December 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • The Guardian October Poll

    At a lead of 17-points, this is the joint second highest EVER recorded in the dating back to 1992, only beaten by a Gordon Brown crisis of June 2008. The Tories 43% is two-points adrift of its highest share ever recorded by ICM (three times after the 1992 election, Jun-08 and Nov-08 plus 44% on three occasions straddling 08-09). We did have them on 43% back in July this year.

    As for Labour, their 26% has only been ‘beaten’ by 25% in Jun 08 and Aug 09, and the last Guardian/ICM at this level was Sep 09 (the only other time). However, ICM did also put them on 26% three weeks’ ago for a Sunday newspaper.

    In fact though, Labour’s share has only been saved from a record low by ICM’s standard post-fieldwork adjustment techniques, which ordinarily help the Tories. The reason for this is that this week, there are a high number of people who say they voted Labour in 2015 but DK/refuse to say what they will do next time, and our reallocation of them back to the party for they voted for ends up adding two-points back to Labour.

    Labour’s struggles are especially prevalent among women (Tory split 39% vs 52% in favour of women).

    We also see further decline in the UKIP share, possibly prompted by recent fisticuffs and the return of Nigel Farage. At 11% they dip below their 2015 election share for the first time with ICM and it’s the lowest we’ve ever had them on an online poll (although phone polls pre-2015 had them lower very often).

  • The Guardian – September Poll 1

    In the latest Guardian/ICM poll – which has permanently switched to online data collection allied to twice-monthly outputs – the Conservatives (41%) retain a sizeable gap (13-points) over Labour (28%), even though Labour claw back 1-point compared to our last poll in late August.

    The Conservatives dominate English seats in Parliament, and currently sit on a 16-point lead over Labour in England. With Scotland very much in the tight grip of the SNP and the Right making advances in Wales  it is hard to see where Labour could look for comfort right now, or that much will change until the leadership contest is over.

     

  • Voting intention poll 26-28 August

    Nothing really to see here, if you’re only interested in statistically significant movements in polling data.

    If you prefer a more melodramatic interpretation, well, Labour have bounced back down to their most recent floor of 27%, last seen exactly a month ago in the ICM/Guardian series but before that not since the slow torture of Gordon Brown’s last months in office (October 2009).

    It’s the third straight Guardian/ICM with Labour snugly below the politically symbolic 30% threshold, although its Selectorate do not appear to mind that much, given a poll reported today that suggests Jeremy Corbyn will cruise his re-selection.

    The Conservatives for their part, also hit a politically symbolic mark for the third straight occasion. More happily for the new PM, the share is above the success marker of 40%, their current showing of 41% estimated by Electoral Calculus to yield a majority in the House of Commons of 102 seats (excluding Northern Ireland). This is the fifth 40%+ share for the Tories from ICM since the 2015 General Election, compared to only one such rarely-spotted phenomenon (Jan 12) in the previous electoral cycle. This remains solidly honeymoon territory.

    ICM Unlimited interviewed 2,040 adults online on 26-28th August 2016. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Guardian/ICM voting intention poll

    ICM interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,001 GB adults aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted online on 24-26 June 2016.