• The Guardian – April 2018 Poll 1

     

    Brexit Deadlock

     

    Our last Guardian/ICM poll showed the Tories opening up a three percentage point lead over Labour. With UKIP falling to a record low of 1%, it was plausible that this was the start of a shift away from the deadlocked polls we’ve got used to since the last election.

     

    When it comes to public opinion, we should never speak too soon. This week’s polling shows UKIP bouncing back up to 4%, whilst the Conservatives drop two percentage points, reducing their lead over Labour to a single percent. Figures are shown below, with any change versus our previous Guardian/ICM poll in brackets:

     

    Conservative: 42% (-2)

    Labour: 41% (nc)

    Lib Dems: 7% (-1)

    Greens: 3% (+1)

    UKIP: 4% (+3)

    SNP: 3% (nc)

     

    We also repeated two Brexit questions last seen in the Brexit mega poll run back in June. As well as asking how people would vote in a second referendum, we also asked about support for another referendum after Brexit negotiation conclude.

     

    Again, what is remarkable here is the lack of any substantial change in public opinion on both of these questions. All of the results are within 2-3% of the percentages seen in January. It appears that there hasn’t been any significant change in the support of opposition to a second referendum in these circumstances and overall or the voting intention in a second referendum if it were to take place. Quite simply, people aren’t changing their minds on Brexit – it’s still the case that around 9 in 10 (89%) of those who voted either Remain and Leave back in 2016 would vote the same way if there were a second referendum held tomorrow. The wafer-thin lead for Remain can again be attributed to those who did not vote in 2016 or can’t remember how they voted breaking in favour of Remain (28%) over leave (12%). The results for each answer, with the figures from January, are shown below

     

     

    On 23rd June 2016, a referendum was held on if the UK should remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.

     If there was another EU referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?

    • For the UK to Remain in the EU (Jan: 45%; Apr: 45%)
    • For the UK to Leave the EU (Jan: 43%; Apr: 44%)
    • I wouldn’t vote (Jan: 6%; Apr: 5%)
    • Prefer not to say (Jan: 1%; Apr: 1%)
    • Don’t know (Jan: 5%; Apr: 5%)

     

    To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I think the public should have the chance to take a final decision on whether or not to leave the EU in another referendum when the outcome of the negotiation is known? 

    • Strongly agree (Jan: 28%; Apr: 30%)
    • Tend to agree (Jan: 19%; Apr: 17%)
    • Neither agree nor disagree (Jan: 14%; Apr: 11%)
    • Tend to disagree (Jan: 11%; Apr: 12%)
    • Strongly disagree (Jan: 23%; Apr: 25%)
    • Don’t know (Jan: 6%; Apr: 6%)

    Jan: net agree: 47%; net disagree 34%

    Apr: net agree: 47%; net disagree 36%

     

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,012 adults aged 18+, between 6th – 8th April 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • The Guardian – March 2018 Poll

    With both party leaders making major speeches on Brexit last week, the latest ICM/Guardian poll aimed to look at what impact, if any, these speeches had outside the Westminster bubble.

    The short answer is: not much.

    With fieldwork starting after the Theresa May finished her Brexit speech on Friday, these results provide a good initial read public opinion in the immediate aftermath of the two key speeches. By subtracting those who disagree with each statement shown from all those who agree with the statement, we get a net score per statement. We asked four pairs of statements on whether each leader and party’s policy on Brexit is clearer than before, has realistic aims, makes people more likely to vote for that party, and is a policy which the public overall approve of. The results are shown below:

    Guardian Brexit V2
     

    Net score
    Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s policy on Brexit is much clearer than it was before 1%
    Theresa May and the government’s policy on Brexit is much clearer than it was before -5%
    The aims of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in Brexit negotiations seem realistic -11%
    The aims of Theresa May and the government in Brexit negotiations seem realistic 0%
    Overall I approve of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s Brexit policy -13%
    Overall I approve of Theresa May and the government’s Brexit policy -3%
    Jeremy Corbyn’s policy on Brexit makes me more likely than otherwise to vote Labour -17%
    Theresa May’s policy on Brexit makes me more likely than otherwise to vote Conservative -14%

     

    This is bleak reading for both Labour and Conservatives. Our regular polling results seems to increasingly show Brexit to be a zero-sum game for the two main parties – politicians have to be seen to be taking a position, but any position chosen is generally met with more public disagreement than agreement.

    Jeremy Corbyn and Labour have the one positive net score in this poll, with one percent point more of the British public thinking that Corbyn and Labour’s Brexit policy is clearer than it was before (net score = 1%). This compares favourably with Theresa May and the government’s equivalent net score, which is on -5%.

    However, Corbynites shouldn’t see this as a cause for celebration, as whilst his and his party’s position may now be marginally more clear, it’s equally apparent that the public are not enamoured with it. On balance the British public do not think that Corbyn and Labour’s aims in Brexit negotiations are realistic (net score = -11%) or approve of their Brexit policy overall (net score = -13%). Ultimately only 1 in 4 (25%) agree that Corbyn and Labour’s position on Brexit makes them more likely to vote Labour, with more than 2 in 5 (42%) disagreeing – giving a net score of -17%.

    May and the government consistently have less negative scores than Corbyn and Labour on all areas apart from Brexit policy clarity (net score = -5%). Whilst the net score on ‘Theresa May’s policy on Brexit makes me more likely than otherwise to vote Conservative’ is marginally higher than the equivalent statement for Corbyn and Labour (net score =-14%), there are much bigger differences between the two leaders’ and parties’ perception in terms of realistic aims and overall approval.  Equal proportions of the British pubic agree and disagree that May and the government’s aims in Brexit negotiation seem realistic (net score = 0%), whilst the net score on overall approval of May and the government’s Brexit policy is -3%.

    It’s worth maintaining perspective when viewing these results. When we are comparing Brexit perceptions in terms of Labour vs. Conservative, May vs. Corbyn, we are generally comparing degrees of negativity. This is not a story of public enthusiasm and positivity – quite the opposite – so maybe the best the parties can hope for is to limit the public negativity associated with their chosen Brexit approach.

    In terms of voting intentions, there’s very little change. Labour and Conservatives trade one percent of the public’s vote intention between them, meaning the Conservatives regain a slim lead on 43% compared to Labour’s 42%. But these two proportions are still very much within the margin of error on this poll, so if there was an election tomorrow, we’d still consider it too close to call. Results for the main Westminster parties are shown below, with comparison to our previous poll a fortnight ago.

    Conservatives: 43% (+1%)
    Labour: 42% (-1%)
    LibDems: 7% (nc)
    SNP: 3% (nc)

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,030 adults aged 18+, between 2nd – 4th  March 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • BBC Wales – St David’s Day Poll 2018

    ICM Unlimited were commissioned by BBC Wales to carry out the annual St David’s Day poll.

    The table below shows the trend data on attitudes towards devolved powers for Wales:

    Feb-18 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Sep-14 Mar-14 2013 2012 2011 2010
    Independence 7% 6% 6% 6% 3% 5% 9% 7% 11% 11%
    Assembly plus more powers 44% 44% 43% 40% 49% 37% 36% 36% 35% 40%
    Assembly remain as present 28% 29% 30% 33% 26% 28% 28% 29% 18% 13%
    Assembly with fewer powers 4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 17% 18%
    Abolish Assembly 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 23% 20% 22% 15% 13%
    DK 4% 3% 4%  – 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%

     

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone, between 8th – 25h February 2018. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

    Click here for methodology details