• The Guardian – February 2018 Poll

    The past week has seen the ‘Westminster bubble’ absorbed by the infighting, Brexit policy confusion, and potential leadership challengers to Theresa May’s Conservative government. Yet the British public remain largely unmoved in their overall voting intention. Comparing to our mega-poll released just over a week ago, the Conservatives remain unchanged on 41% and Labour slip down just one point to 40%.

     

    Last Thursday the Lib Dems had a surprise council by-election win over Labour in Sunderland, where they saw their vote increase by 49.5 percentage points to claim the Pallion seat formerly held by Labour. Whilst this is not replicated in our nationally representative polling, we do see their vote share bump up by one percentage point, from 7% to 8%. UKIP and the SNP remain unchanged on 4% and 3% respectively.

     

    However, the main story coming through in this poll mirrors much of the sentiment picked up in the Guardian/ICM Brexit mega-poll published just over a week ago: the British public are becoming more and more negative towards how Brexit is going. Brits think Brexit is going badly, and are far from agreement on which politician could make a better job of it.

     

    Back at the start of December, we asked how the Brexit process of the UK leaving the EU was going – only 21% of the British public said it was going well, with 51% saying it was going badly. Two months later, only 16% of the British public think the Brexit process is going well, with an increased majority (53%) now thinking it is going badly.

     

    These figures make especially concerning reading for the Tories, as now fewer than a third of Conservative voters think Brexit is going well (32%), down from almost 2 in 5 (39%) at the start of December. Indeed, it’s hard to find one substantial group of voters who think the Brexit process is going well. It may not be surprising to see that only 12% of 2016 Remainers think Brexit is going well, but it seems stark that even amongst 2016 Leave voters, less than a quarter (23%) say Brexit is going well.

     

    The only solace that Theresa May could take from these results is that voters are not clear on which politician they would prefer to be in charge of Brexit. We asked respondents to tell us if they agreed or disagreed with the Brexit views of Tony Blair, Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, and Keir Starmer. None of these politicians enjoyed ‘net positive’ support for their position on Brexit. In short, for each and every one of the politicians we asked about, more of the British public disagree with their Brexit views than agree with them.

     

    Of the politicians we asked about, Boris Johnson attracted the most support for his views on Brexit. However, only 32% of the British public say they agree with his Brexit stance, which in turn is only one percent above agreement with Theresa May’s Brexit views (31%), while a similar proportion (30%) of the British public say they agree with Nigel Farage’s views on the sort of Brexit the UK should adopt. By comparison, Jeremy Corbyn’s views on Brexit win the agreement of 23% of the British public – although many more (39%) disagree with him.

     

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,021 adults aged 18+, between 2nd – 4th February 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

  • Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll

    A new poll conducted by ICM for The Guardian shows Nick Clegg is on course to hold onto his seat in Sheffield Hallam. When respondents are presented with named candidates, the topline results are as follows:

    • Ian Walker (Conservative) – 12%
    • Oliver Coppard (Labour) – 35%
    • Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) – 42%
    • Peter Garbutt (Greens) – 3%
    • Joe Jenkins (Ukip) – 7%
    • Other 2%

    However, a different picture emerges when respondents are asked to only think about the political parties:

    • Conservative – 21%
    • Labour -34%
    • Liberal Democrat – 32%
    • Greens – 4%
    • Ukip – 8%
    • Other – 1%

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 501 adults by telephone in the political constituency of Sheffield Hallam on 1-3rd May 2015. Interviews were conducted across the constituency and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults living there. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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  • Guardian Campaign Poll 2 – April 2015

    The second ICM/Guardian campaign poll very much sees a reversion to the mean after last week’s shock 6-point lead for the Conservatives. This week, they fall back to 34% (-5), still 2-points ahead of Labour (32%). The Liberal Democrats recover slightly to 10% (+2) and UKIP return to more routinely seen levels of late (11%). The full numbers are:

    Conservative 34%
    Labour 32%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 11%
    Green 5%
    Other 8%

    As if to prove the narrowness of this race, Labour actually hold a 1-point lead on the past vote weighted data, which is reversed with interest when ICM’s turnout weighting is imposed, pushing the Tories out to a 3-point lead, (reduced to 2-points after partial refuser adjustment). This election remains too close to call.

    In an interesting twist, we can view the extent to which each party can depend on its stated support. We asked intenders for each party whether they were certain they would vote that way, or whether they could change their mind. After turnout weighting, we can see the kind of voting patterns that have featured at previous elections emerging again. Conservative voters are most solid, with 73% saying they will vote for the party. Labour supporters say the same to the tune of 68%, a similar number to UKIP (65%). Labour’s possible wipe-out in Scotland is further supported by the fact that 95% of SNP voters are certain of their intention. The same cannot be said for the Liberal Democrats though, whose tumble into or near single figures may not stop where it is. Only 54% of its stated intenders say they are certain to vote for the party. The Greens may also fall away, with only 47% of their voters showing certainty.

    In general these levels of certainty are lower than they were before the 2010 election. Then, ICM returned to pre-election respondents to ask them how they actually voted, with 87% of Tories saying they did do what they said they were going to do, 86% of Labour intenders and 74% of Liberal Democrats. Voters from smaller parties fared much less well, with only 42% of Green intenders saying they did end up voting for the party, for example. Other smaller parties at the election suffered a similar fate, and we might expect more of the same this May.

    This week has seen the publication of party manifestos, and for the most part the public approve of them. Cutting income tax via the personal allowance is clearly a highly populist measure, with 89% backing the Tory proposal. Labour’s ideas on zero-hour contracts are also appealing, with 82% behind the measure. Seven in ten (71%) approve of the Tories inheritance tax proposals, while over half (55%) approve of UKIP’s cap on skilled and unskilled immigrants and an identical number approve of Labour’s abolition of non-dom status (55%). Allowing housing association tenants to buy their property at a subsidy gets the support of 56%.

    In the potential chaos of a fully hung parliament, if forced to choose the public would just about prefer a Conservative-LD coalition (41%) over a Labour-SNP alternative, although the public is completely split on who the Liberal Democrats should go in with if it were just down to their backing for either Labour (41%) or the Tories (41%).

    ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 17-19th April 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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